Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 191742
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1242 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

No early afternoon updates.

UPDATE Issued at 829 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Quick update to cancel the frost advisory. Widespread low
temperatures in the middle and even some lower 30s across the
northwest and north central this morning. However, temperatures
have since recovered and are now rising through the 40s.

UPDATE
Issued at 620 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

No big changes for this morning. Temperatures in a few locations
have hit 30F. Overall the frost advisory has done well. Sky cover
will continue to decrease southwest and south central over the
next few hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

Issued at 442 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Forecast highlights in the short term period will be frost
potential again Saturday night/early Sunday morning.

Currently, weak northwest flow aloft with an embedded S/WV
dropping south across southwestern and south central North
Dakota. A few lingering light showers ahead of the wave over far
southwest and far south central ND, which should be exiting off to
the south within the next hour or so. Cloud cover has decreased
across the north as surface high pressure builds into the Northern
Plains from south central Canada. Mostly cloudy conditions over
the southwest quarter of ND should also be on the decrease this
morning.

Surface high pressure continues to build across the region today.
Much warmer thanks to lack of cloud cover and CAA, with daytime
highs in the 60s. Winds remain breezy far south central and
southeast, where gusts will approach 30 mph at times out of the
northeast.

Winds taper off and will be light tonight with high pressure
centered over the state. Dry air associated with the sfc high
combined with a clear sky will see temperatures once again cool
quickly into the 30s many locations. Frost headlines will likely
be needed again for tonight/Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)

Issued at 442 AM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Mid level ridge and sfc high pressure maintain dry conditions for
Sunday and into early next week, along with a gradual warm up into
the 70s by Monday.

Shower/thunderstorm chances return Tuesday & Wednesday as the
ridge breaks down allowing mid level impulses to track through the
region. Temperatures continue to moderate into the mid 70s to
lower 80s both days, along with increasing moisture leading to
increasing instability for convection potential, especially west
and south near an approaching frontal boundary.

Disorganized upper level low over the Intermountain West mid-week
will then lift northeast into the Northern Plains Thursday and
spins over the region into Friday thanks to weak upper level flow.
This feature and its associated sfc boundaries coupled with
instability and ample deep layer moisture will bring decent shower
and thunderstorm chances to the region for the end of the work
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

VFR conditions expected through the 18Z TAF period. Breezy
conditions at KJMS this afternoon. Otherwise Northeast flow will
become light early this evening at all TAF sites and shift to a
southeast flow on Sunday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH



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