Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
469 FXUS65 KBOI 160922 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 322 AM MDT Thu May 16 2024 .SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday night...Today will see warm and dry conditions persist as the eastern edge of the Pacific high pressure system holds sway over the forecast area. However, expect an increase in high clouds from the northwest as a low-pressure system approaches from western Canada. Despite the cloud cover, temperatures will remain in the mid-80s this afternoon in the lower valleys. A surface cold front linked with the approaching upper-level low will sweep southeast across southeast Oregon early Friday morning and southwest Idaho between sunrise and 11 AM. Following the frontal passage, expect gusty northwesterly winds to persist through sunset. The most potent winds are anticipated across the Western Snake River Plain, with guidance indicating a 40-60% likelihood of wind gusts surpassing 45 MPH from Mountain Home through the Western Magic Valley and Camas Prairie by Friday afternoon and evening. Temperatures on Friday are expected to drop to near-normal levels or around 10 degrees below todays highs in the valley. Although moisture is limited with the frontal passage, there is a 20% chance of showers along the frontal boundary over the higher terrain of Baker County, Oregon, and the West Central Mountains of Idaho. Colder northwesterly flow will persist into Saturday as the low progresses eastward along the Montana/Canadian border. Apart from a few showers across Valley County, Idaho on Saturday, the forecast area will remain dry. Saturday morning temperatures could dip to the upper 30s in the valley, with highs reaching near normal later in the day. .LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...An upper level trough will move through the region on Sunday, bringing a cold front, cooler temperatures, and a slight chance of showers (10-20% chance) to the West Central Mountains. A few snowflakes are possible above 6000- 7000 feet. After Monday, conditions appear to be dry with near normal temperatures ahead of an other strong upper level low moving into the Pacific Northwest by Wednesday morning. This will be the next significant chance of precipitation over the valleys, with 60% of ensemble members showing precipitation in the Boise area next Wednesday. 6 hour PoPs on Wednesday and Thursday are generally 10- 20% in the Snake Plain and 20-40% elsewhere. Afternoon winds on Wednesday and Thursday will also be fairly breezy. Temps will be near or just below normal through the period. && .AVIATION...VFR and mostly clear. Some slight visibility reduction in vicinity of prescribed fires near the southwest Idaho mountains. Surface winds: variable <10 kt this morning, becoming W to NW 5-15 kt this afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: N-NW 10-20 kt. KBOI...VFR. A few high clouds and some hazy skies near the foothills due to smoke from prescribed burns in the Boise Mountains. Surface winds: generally light and variable overnight, becoming NW 5-10 kt this afternoon. Weekend Outlook...VFR and mostly clear through Saturday, becoming partly cloudy Sunday. Slight chance (10-20%) of showers in the West Central Mtns on Friday and Sunday. Surface winds very breezy on Friday W-NW 15-25 kt with gusts to 30-40 kt, and again on Sunday at MUO/TWF/JER W-NW 15-20 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...JDS LONG TERM....JM AVIATION.....JM