052
FXUS65 KBOI 150911
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
311 AM MDT Wed May 15 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night...Today, anticipate
light winds and mostly clear skies as the upper level ridge
extends eastward across our forecast region. However, the
ridge`s core will remain well to the west, maintaining a cool
northwesterly airflow and keeping temperatures around 5 degrees
above normal. By Thursday, the ridge weakens as a new system
approaches from the northwest. This will usher in increased
southerly winds at the surface, boosting temperatures into the
mid-80s in the lower valleys. Come Friday, expect colder and
windier conditions as a closed low from western Canada moves
southeastward. A potent upper level jet accompanying the cold
frontal passage could support gusty winds, particularly across
the Western Snake River Plain. Current guidance is showing a
40-60% likelihood of wind gusts exceeding 45 MPH from Mountain
Home through the Western Magic Valley and Camas Prairie by
Friday afternoon and evening.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...This weekend will be
fairly mundane as the upper flow, despite a decent gradient, is
mostly zonal. The gradient forcing will keep afternoons gusty,
but below product criteria. Sunday evening a trough north of our
area will support a 15-25% chance of showers in the far
northeastern stretches of Valley County. Monday through
Wednesday model agreement is lacking, but the consensus is that
a period of unsettled weather will begin as a closed low moves
to the west of our area. Temperatures will trend downward, but
still remain near or just below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR and mostly clear, except some reduction in
visibility in vicinity of prescribed fires over the southwest Idaho
terrain. Surface winds: generally W to NW 5-15 kt. Winds aloft at
10kft MSL: N-NW 10-20 kt.

KBOI...VFR and passing high clouds. Surface winds: generally NW 5-10
kt, except periods of light and variable overnight.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION.....JM