Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 231824
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
224 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers remain possible through the afternoon. In
addition, winds increase this afternoon and evening after a
front passes and the pressure gradient tightens. Upper ridging
builds over the area for Sunday and Monday. A slow-moving cold
front is expected move through the area during the mid-week
period with the next chance of showers. Temperatures will likely
be below normal this weekend, warming to near to above normal
values for the mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An upper trough continues to move over the Southeast this
afternoon. An associated surface cold front is also making its
way across the region. Both features are forecast to move east
of the forecast area tonight. As the front and trough progress
through the region, there is a slight chance of showers. Any
shower activity is likely to be on the lighter side. In addition
to the rain chances, gusty winds are expected to develop this
afternoon due to a tightening pressure gradient as a surface
high begins to build in from the Ohio River Valley. Behind the
front, dry air moves back into the area. A low-level jet is
expected overnight, allowing for some strong cold-air advection
to develop, leading to lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s. This
jet is also expect to produce some even stronger wind gusts, in
the 30-35 mph range from the north through about daybreak.
Therefore, have hoisted a Lake Wind Advisory for the overnight
hours. The highest winds tonight are expected to be in the
eastern two- thirds of the forecast area.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Upper ridging over the southeast into the Mid Atlantic with
confluent zonal flow north into New England. A strong pressure
ridge over eastern Canada and the northeast will build south
along the Atlantic seaboard through the Carolinas into Ga. The
air mass will be very with dew points falling into the low to
mid 20s. The pressure gradient will relax but still expect
northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Cold advection appears to be
focused in the SC Upstate and Piedmont. With subsidence
temperatures expected in the low to mid 60s by afternoon.

Some high level clouds spread across the area especially late
Sunday night. Surface ridge axis across the Upstate. Models
indicate a possible strong boundary layer jet. Degree of
radiational cooling uncertain. But guidance suggests mid 30s
north of CAE so continued mention of patchy frost there. Temps
near 40 across the southern portion of the region.

Surface and upper ridge axis shifts east Monday. Low level flow
more easterly or south-easterly. Some low level moisture
advection off the Atlantic mainly along the Savannah River.
Otherwise fair with weak warm advection and subsidence so temps
should be a little warmer than Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper and surface ridge axes to shift offshore Tuesday, with a
front approaching from the west. Mean upper trough to develop
over the central CONUS with southwest flow aloft over our
region, leading to slow frontal movement. Ensembles suggest weak
low pressure may develop near the coast Wednesday night into
Thursday. The models are suggesting relatively low qpf except in
the eastern/southeast Midlands near potential coastal low.
Upper trough moving to the east by Thursday night/Friday with
drier air and high pressure moving in under a dry NW flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR conditions improving to VFR conditions for the TAF period.

All TAF terminals except OGB are reporting MVFR ceilings at this
hour. Expected the ceilings to improve to lower VFR conditions
by about 19z or 20z. Ceilings continue to improve from there,
eventually becoming clear around daybreak, around 11z. A cold
front moving through this afternoon brings a small chance of
light rain at the terminals (10% or less). If showers pass over
a terminal, visibilities are not expected to lower much, if at
all, so have left mention of rain out of the TAFS for now.
Northwest winds gusting to around 20 kts are also expected to
begin the period before turning more northerly. Winds overnight
pick up to 20-25 kts, possibly stronger at CAE, CUB, and OGB.
Another wind shift to northeast is expected around 12z as winds
slowly diminish.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions associated with
rainfall are possible Tuesday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Lake Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Sunday
     for SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-
     135>137.
GA...Lake Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Sunday
     for GAZ040-063>065-077.

&&

$$


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