375
FXUS61 KCLE 092354
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
754 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Lingering surface troughing will persist over the area through
Friday. A low pressure system will enter the region for Saturday
with a brief period of high pressure on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
7:55 PM Update:
Only minor changes with this update. This afternoon`s rain was
a bit slower to exit but is doing so this evening. Another batch
of relatively light showers will drop in from the northwest
over the next few hours.

Previous Discussion:
Unsettled weather to end the week and begin the weekend as an upper
trough swinging southeastward will allow for a low pressure system
to glide across the Ohio Valley region. Rain showers will continue
to move eastward across Northern Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania
through this evening. The trough will eject another shortwave which
will allow for another burst of rain showers to move across the
region overnight tonight before the entire longwave trough exits the
region tomorrow evening. We`ll see a brief dry period Friday
evening through late Friday night as a brief ridge of high
pressure builds overhead before our next shortwave dives
southeastward to begin the short term period.

Near normal low temperatures tonight settle into the upper 40s to
lower 50s. Afternoon highs on Friday will be cooler than normal as
they rise into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Low temperatures drop
into the 40s for Friday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A compact upper level trough will deepen as it digs south across the
Great Lakes region on Saturday. A short window of warm advection is
expected on Saturday ahead of surface low pressure which will
move southeast across lower Michigan and Lake Erie through
Saturday evening. A narrow ribbon of theta-e advection will be
pulled north ahead of the deepening trough. Given the stronger
dynamics, there is good confidence is showers with a chance of
thunderstorms during the day on Saturday, before exiting to the
east Saturday evening. Cooler air will be reinforced behind this
system Saturday night with 850mb temperatures of 1-4C. Although
not quite cold enough for pure lake effect showers Saturday
night, shallow lift along within the broad cyclonic flow should
maintain a chance of showers from north central Ohio and east
across the snowbelt area. Lows are forecast to reach the mid 40s
but will clouds and mixing will keep temperatures from dropping
too far below normal.

A surface ridge will build north into the Ohio Valley on Sunday with
conditions drying out and skies clearing. A warming trend will get
underway from the west with temperatures in NW Ohio approaching 70
degrees while Erie PA remains closer to 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The long term forecast will start out with above normal temperatures
with ridging aloft. This occurs ahead of a trough moving through the
northern stream north of the lakes and a closed upper level low
meandering east across the Plains towards the Tennessee/Ohio
Valleys. A slow moving cold front is forecast to approach from
the north on Tuesday while moisture gradually increases from the
southwest ahead of the low. There will be chances of showers and
thunderstorms through the mid-week period but coverage and
timing will be impacted by the interaction of these two features
as the low moves east through the Ohio Valley. Most models
indicate drier air will arrive by Thursday with temperatures
trending warmer.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
More numerous and occasionally moderate showers are exiting to
the east this evening. Another batch of showers will drop
through from the northwest over the next several hours. A mixed
bag of ceilings ranging from IFR to VFR. Generally observing
lower ceilings at MFD and CAK, with a decent chance these spread
into YNG soon. TOL and especially FDY may dip back to MVFR as
the showers move through this evening but that shouldn`t last
more than 2-3 hours. Expect gradual improvement to VFR from
north to south at all sites later tonight into Friday morning
as drier air advects in. MFD and CAK will likely take longest to
reach VFR and may not do so until near or just after 12z
Friday. Some cumulus should develop by midday with daytime
heating. A low risk for these to become broken and perhaps even
produce an isolated shower near MFD, otherwise handled with a
SCT020-030 group.

North-northeast winds are still gusting to near 20 knots at most
sites but should turn more northerly and diminish to 5-10 knots
(no gusts) overnight. Northerly winds may gust to near 20 knots
Friday late morning and afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and storms Saturday into
Saturday night. Non-VFR possible on Tuesday in rain showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through tonight with
northerly winds of 15 to 25 knots and waves of 3 to 5 feet. The far
western and eastern near shore zones may be able to be cancelled a
little earlier as winds and waves drop off. The trough across the
lake will relax through the day on Friday with a ridge of high
pressure briefly expanding north into the Central Great Lakes.
Another fast moving area of low pressure will move southeast across
Lake Erie on Saturday with variable wind directions, initially out
of the southwest at 10-15 knots, veering to northwesterly at 10-15
knots. High pressure builds east across the lake on Sunday with
winds and waves of less than 15 knots. Winds will increase into the
15-20 knot range Sunday night into Monday ahead of a slow moving
front but given offshore flow, Small Craft Advisories are not
expected.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for LEZ142-143.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for LEZ144>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Iverson
NEAR TERM...Iverson/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...KEC