016
FXUS63 KDLH 132028
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
328 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions continue through Wednesday afternoon.

- Frost expected tonight and Tuesday night.

- Multiple chances for showers and storms Wednesday evening onward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Quiet to begin the forecast with just typical spring weather and
normal temperatures. Frosty conditions the next two nights, so
issued a Frost Advisory in the MN Arrowhead and NW WI.
Afternoon humidities flirt with fire weather criteria, but winds
lack today and tomorrow, when they finally rise, an incoming
system will increase moisture leading to little concern.

The system on Wednesday is a run of the mill low pressure with
potential for 0.25 to 0.5" of rain. Models start to diverge on
timing of any subsequent systems after this small system. Weak
forcing makes sense for that so generally timing shortwaves and
their impact after this. Blobs of higher PWAT air do make it
into the region on Saturday and again on Monday with instability
working into the region giving the chance for afternoon showers
and thunderstorms.

Not going to get too detailed with the discussion as things are
likely to change given the model uncertainty in a weakly forced
and unstable air mass despite generally progressive flow.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF period. Winds will
start out of the north this morning, and will veer to the
northeast/east this evening and overnight, but will remain light
(<10 kt) for most of the period.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Light and variable winds turn easterly tonight over Lake
Superior. Winds up to 20 kts are possible Tuesday afternoon in
the Twin Ports. These northeast winds will continue into
Wednesday and will increase further as a low approaches the
Northland.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for
     MNZ010>012-019>021-037.
WI...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for
     WIZ001>004-008-009.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolfe
AVIATION...Wolfe
MARINE...Wolfe