Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 261125

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
625 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

An upper level trough of low pressure will swing through the area
today, but at least with regards to precipitation little is expected
to occur. A lead southwest to northwest oriented jet max should
continue to weaken through the morning and while it will provide the
area with a little mid level cloud cover dry low levels and fairly
stable mid levels will not allow for much of any light rainfall. The
exception could be far eastern SD into southwest MN where just a
hint of lower stability in the mid levels is forecast and could
provide a very short period of very light rainfall. Overall, the
impact will be negligible.

A stronger northerly upper level jet will plunge into the area
later this morning and will aid in enhancing mixing and the wind
field which will lead to a bit of a windy day. There should be quite
a bit of sunshine so highs from the upper 50s to mid 60s will still
feel fairly pleasant.

As the jet shifts to the east, west to northwest flow will remain
in place at the surface tonight and will help keep temperatures
on the mild side. Lows generally mid 30s to lower 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Friday will be another windy day as a combination of good mixing and
decent cool air advection will allow for gusts to 30 to 35 mph.
Temperatures will be on the mild side and will need to keep an eye
on dew points as the good mixing could result in lower dew points.
Afternoon relative humidity already forecast to be 25 to 35 percent
so could prove to be a problem for fire weather.

A fairly strong high pressure at the surface will settle in on
Friday night and continue through Saturday. This will bring some
cooler temperatures both Friday night and Saturday morning but with
lighter winds and a lot of sunshine Saturday should be a very nice
day in the 60s.

An upper level ridge will strengthen over the area on Sunday and
much warmer temperatures will result. Along with the warmer
temperatures will be much windier conditions with southerly gusts
likely approaching 40 mph. Dew points should increase enough to help
fire weather concerns but with that strong of a wind and
temperatures in the 70s there may be some problems.

Sunday night into Wednesday will see a trough dig into the Rockies
but this time around the models are a little more aggressive in
collapsing the ridge east as a series of stronger jet maxes eject
northward. Too early to really get comfortable with a solution but
should be a good chance for showers and a few thunderstorms during
this time with highs Monday in the 70s then likely 60s Tuesday and
Wednesday. Low temperatures Monday and Tuesday mornings will be very
warm in the 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

A band of mid-level clouds associated with a weak cold front will
move through this morning and could bring a few sprinkles. The
more widespread impact will be a wind shift to north winds gusting
25 to 30 kt by late morning through the afternoon. After sunset,
winds will quickly weaken with clear skies.




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