Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 260801
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
401 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...


- A few thunderstorms will be possible across the area through
  this morning. Otherwise, widespread showers will move across
  the area this morning through this afternoon.

- Temperatures cool to within a few degrees of normal today through
  Friday, with the threat for sub-freezing temperatures returning
  for many valley locations by Thursday night.

- PoPs start to creep back in from the northwest this weekend,
  with temperatures returning to around 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 AM EDT TUE MAR 26 2024

A pre-frontal band of showers and thunderstorms continue to slowly
trek eastward this morning largely coinciding with the jet streaks
at the 850- to 700-hPa levels ahead of a strong cyclone over the
Upper Mississippi River Valley. This jet stream will only slowly
move across the area through the early to mid-afternoon, with a dry
slot moving northeast across the area by late afternoon and early
evening ending most of the widespread shower activity and allowing
for partial clearing of skies. The surface cold front itself crosses
the region tonight, with some models showing a frontal band of
showers moving into our northern half of counties as it moves across
the region.

As the front moves slowly east of the area late tonight into
Wednesday, weak high pressure begins to move into the region but
aloft the region will remain within the PVA region downstream of the
large upper trough over the Central US.

Widespread precipitation will mean temperatures today will not rise
much from where they have been during the early morning hours, with
highs generally ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s. Cooler air
moves into the region tonight from the west with lows generally in
the upper 30s and lower 40s west to upper 40s east where clouds
linger the longest. Wednesday`s highs will be near to about 5
degrees above normal in the lower to mid 60s as southwest flow aloft
continues across the region, strongest toward the Virginia border.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 531 PM EDT MON MAR 25 2024

A deeper trough will start out across the center of the CONUS,
with a stout closed low swinging through the Upper Midwest/western
Great Lakes region. This feature will curl northeast into Ontario
through Thursday, with the long wave trough axis shifting east,
clearing the central and southern Appalachians by Thursday
evening, with surface high pressure building in from the west.
Upstream, modest ridging will move from the Rockies to the Plains,
before dampening even further as it crosses the Mississippi
Valley. Mainly zonal flow will then be found east of the
Mississippi River by this weekend and into early next week, as a
positively tilted trough in more of a split-flow regime takes
shape out west and gradually moves southeast with time. At the
surface, a baroclinic zone will gradually develop from the Midwest
through the Ohio Valley by this weekend and early next week. Model
agreement is good through late in the work week, but then declines
somewhat towards the end of the period, as details associated with
the nearing frontal boundary to our northwest becomes lower
confidence.

Sensible weather features diminishing slight chance PoPs across
far eastern Kentucky through the day on Wednesday, as the cold
front pulls further away. The frontal timing will yield a good
gradient of temperatures across the area, with locations further
east perhaps nearing 70 degrees, while sites across the Bluegrass
will remain near or just below 60 degrees. The trough axis will
remain to our west Wednesday night, with at least some lingering
clouds combatting the cool air advection across our southeast,
with most places staying above freezing. Locations towards the
Bluegrass as well as along and west of I-75 stand a better chance
of nearing the freezing mark. High pressure will build in more
solidly Thursday into Thursday night, with drier air likely to mix
down some dew points in the mid 20s during peak heating...closer
to the 10th percentile of the blended guidance. This will setup a
colder night overall for Thursday night, with the typically colder
valley sites dipping below 30 degrees.

Temperatures will gradually modify through the rest of the
period, as more of a return flow ensues. Bouts of 850 mb moisture
transport will then advect in from the west southwest this
weekend and especially early next week, as a frontal boundary
generally sags closer to the vicinity of the area. Slight chance
PoPs (20%) will return from the northwest as early as late Friday
night. Small chance PoPs (20-30%) will then continue to threaten
a larger portion of the forecast area through this weekend, with
even a threat of some thunderstorms at times. By early next week,
PoPs increase to good chance (40-60%), as deeper moisture and
forcing arrive, with front drawing closer. Temperatures will
trend back to around 10 degrees above normal towards the end of
the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT TUE MAR 26 2024

VFR conditions to begin the period as elevated showers and
possibly a few thunderstorms move across primarily KSME, KLOZ, and
KSYM through 09z. Cigs gradually lower through the remainder of
the morning as the atmosphere moistens, with all TAF sites likely
eventually experiencing MVFR conditions at some point in the late
morning through mid-afternoon period. Models also suggest a quick
partial clearing as showers end Tuesday afternoon from west to
east. Note that confidence in timing of precipitation as well as
when MVFR reductions begin and end is not particularly high.

LLWS will continue for TAF sites until more persistent shower
activity moves over a TAF site this morning. Southeast winds
generally 10 kts or less with occasional gusts to near 20 kts will
gradually becoming more southerly and then southwesterly late this
afternoon and evening.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...CMC


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