686
FXUS64 KMEG 152342 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
642 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Pleasant and dry conditions will come to an end tomorrow as a few
systems cross the region. Showers and thunderstorms, some may be
strong to severe, are possible tomorrow evening and Friday.
Thursday`s potential for severe weather looks to be north of
Interstate 40 and Friday may be more widespread with the most likely
area across north Mississippi. High pressure settles in on Sunday
and temperatures will be on the rise and our first 90 degree day
will arrive early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

A nice cumulus field is depicted on satellite across the region as
skies gradually clear out as upper level ridging slides in.
Temperatures have risen to the mid to upper 70s this afternoon as
the sun shines through. A weak surface cold front is draped across
the TN/KY border at 1 PM. This cold front may have enough pull for a
few afternoon showers and thunderstorms across west Tennessee,
slight chance PoPs were carried near the Tennessee River to account
for any development. Skies will continue to clear this evening with
light winds making fog development possible. Radiational cooling
will enhance fog development mainly for areas near the Tennessee
River. Confidence is low in dense fog development.

An MCV on track across Missouri may bring a few strong, possibly
severe storms to the Mid-South tomorrow. Any development tomorrow
afternoon will most likely be confined to north of the I-40
corridor. This MCV does look to approach early tomorrow morning, but
it must act as a battering ram first to push the ridge out of the
way. By the time the MCV reaches the area, it will be running out of
daytime heating and diurnal stability trends. There however may be
enough low-level shear (31 kts 0-3km) for a strong to severe storm
late tomorrow evening with low confidence in the overnight severe
threat.

Model uncertainty has painted Friday as a few different outcomes. A
deep trough under southerly flow aloft will push across the
southeast from the southern plains. The strength of this trough will
be highly dependent on how long the decaying MCV takes to push out
of the Mid-South and if the atmosphere has enough time to recover.
Shear does still look to remain impressive and supportive of
updrafts, but instability could be lacking. The highest probability
for severe weather currently appears to be from far southeast TX
across much of LA and central/southern MS into western AL. Some
severe potential could extend farther north into the TN Valley, but
uncertainty regarding moisture return and the track of the surface
low. We will continue to monitor this active pattern.

The GFS is a bit pessimistic to push the precipitation activity out
of the region by Saturday morning while the ECMWF has dry conditions
returning Saturday morning. Due to the uncertainty, 20-30 PoPs were
carried for Saturday. High pressure begins to settle in Sunday, and
we could see our first 90 degree days of the season.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

No significant impacts expected this evening, with light winds
and VFR. Will need to watch an area of SHRA/TSRA lifting east
across north central AR. None of CAMs initialized this activity
earlier and recent runs of the HRRR squash it quickly, despite
30-40KT of bulk sheer. This may indeed happen, given significantly
weaker low level flow over eastern AR by 03Z.

Overnight, patchy fog will develop where skies partially clear.

Bulk of SHRA/TSRA to arrive at MEM after 06z Friday, beyond the
TAF period. Decided to include a PROB30 for TSRA for late Thursday
evening, given the potential for impacts.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...PWB