066
FXUS63 KMPX 140920
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
420 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Upper level smoke lingers through Wednesday.

- Best chance for widespread showers on Wednesday, especially during
the evening to overnight. Low severe weather threat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 419 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Overnight satellite imagery shows a picture of what is essentially a
completely clear state of Minnesota aside from some upper level
clouds moving over the far north along the Canadian border, with
invisible to satellite but still present haze from wildfire smoke
also lingering this morning. Ground level smoke has all but eroded
throughout the area however the upper level smoke will persist until
we see clouds building and precipitation falling by Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Temperatures today will once again reach the
low 70s under mostly clear skies with winds generally under 10mph,
making for another gorgeous late Spring day to enjoy. Cloud cover
will increase ahead of an approaching system looking to bring
precipitation on Wednesday, with the setup including zonal upper
level flow and a weak trough alongside a weak low pressure system.
The warm front with the surface system will remain south of the area
leaving us within the precipitation shield to the north of the
front, also keeping us out of the running for any legitimate chances
for severe weather. There is a very small amount of instability
which could result in some thunder by the evening and overnight,
however with limited shear and weak forcing that should be all it
is.

Further chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
continue through the week and weekend into next week with a series
of weak synoptic troughs swinging across the region with shortwaves
being the primary forcing. A lack of upper level jet streak support
and low level moisture returns from the gulf means we have limited
instability and moisture to work with, and thus a fairly low chance
for any severe weather at this time. Perhaps the best chance for a
few storms would arrive Sunday night into Monday morning with some
deterministic consensus between GFS/CFS/ECMWF with a Canadian
surface low dragging a cold front through Minnesota and into
Wisconsin producing the best forcing out of the forecast period. The
rest of the chances look sporadic and mediocre with a lucky few
seeing any legitimate rainfall from it. It has been a while since
our last rainfall event and while we are still on pace for the
month, it would be good to keep the momentum of drought busting
going through to the end of the month.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

What remains of the wildfire smoke aloft will push out early
this morning, resulting in mostly clear skies throughout the
day. VFR is expected throughout with FEW250 the most in terms of
cloud cover until the final few hours where more clouds move in.
Winds remain NE to E at or below 10kts.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR/MVFR, -SHRA late. Wind SE 10-15kts.
THU...VFR, chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind NW 10-15kts.
FRI...VFR, chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind SW 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...TDH