Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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742 FXUS63 KMPX 311729 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1229 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Today...Showers and thunderstorms will move across southern and eastern MN into western WI. Severe weather is not expected, but a few pockets of heavy rain are possible. - Saturday and Sunday...Most locations will be dry on Saturday as rain exits east. Another system will bring thunderstorms from the Dakotas into western MN on Sunday. A few storms could be severe across western and central MN, but storms should weaken as they move toward Wisconsin. - Tuesday/Night...Another system will bring widespread rain Tuesday and Tuesday night. Timing and placement are still uncertain, but the potential for severe storms bears watching. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 318 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 TODAY...Showers and thunderstorms were slow to progress eastward overnight, but have started to fill in across southern Minnesota as expected. These storms are along a weak boundary that will continue to sag southeast this morning, but then will stall out and shift north a bit as a warm front. Low level FGEN will lead to numerous showers and thunderstorms, and the steering winds aloft will parallel to the forcing. As a result, the main concern today is training thunderstorms, heavy rain, and potential for flooding. Overall this is a lower-end threat in the sense that the footprint of the heavy rain will be small, and the lack of a tropical airmass should limit the precipitation amounts. Current forecast has a pretty broad area of 1 to 2 inches with the northern extent along a line from Redwood Falls up through the Twin Cities and into Rice Lake WI. The southern extent is from north central Iowa up through Rochester MN and Eau Claire WI. Based on the synoptic set up and the HiRes output, a few locations within this area could see upwards of 3 to 4 inches. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...No significant changes from the previous forecast. On Saturday showers and thunderstorms will be ending across western WI, so most locations should be dry, which is welcomed news if you have outdoor festivities planned. on Sunday the Day4 outlook area for severe weather transitioned to a slight risk across western MInnesota, with a marginal risk generally up to the WI/MN border. This event is driven by a low- amplitude shortwave trough which will lead to a favorable deep layer shear profile of southerly H925 winds, and westerly H500 winds. There should be adequate instability to support thunderstorms, and organized convection is expected to develop Sunday afternoon, and move eastward during the evening and overnight. Forecast soundings show capping in place across the warm sector, but this CAP should be just enough to limit early storm initiation and allow around 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE to develop. As of now, the main concerns appear to be hail mainly across western MN, transitioning to more of a wind threat as the storms congeal and move east. MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...Monday will be dry in the wake of the departing storm system. The dry period should be short-lived as another northern stream shortwave trough moves across the High Plains toward the Upper Midwest. In contrast to Sunday`s system, this wave is more amplified and takes on a negative tilt and should have stronger forcing for ascent. Another round of widespread convection is expected across the Upper Midwest. With the dynamics in place, the severe weather threat should hinge on the instability, which is highly uncertain this far out based on the timing of the system, so for now continued with the blended forecast guidance. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 VFR turning MVFR with periods of SHRA & TSRA for the TAF period as a front stalls over the area today. TSRA is most likely after 20z through around 02-03z before we lose instability and SHRA lingers through 10-12z tomorrow. The main uncertainty within the TAF will be CIG heights throughout with a high probability of MVFR for most sites that see SHRA and around a 20-25 percent chance of IFR mainly during the period of SHRA before 12z. Visibility could also briefly drop to low MVFR/IFR this afternoon depending on the strength of storms, however instability is fairly limited so rainfall rates dropping visibility below 2sm is not expected for now. KMSP...SHRA into TSRA coverage is expected to increase this afternoon as the front stalls over the area, with currently high-res guidance keeping the line directly over the Twin Cities. The current TAF keeps us MVFR at the lowest, however there is still a possibility of some IFR visibility with some stronger TSRA or even tomorrow morning with the lingering -SHRA. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR, MVFR/-TSRA likely late. Wind S 5-10kts. MON...MVFR/-TSRA early, then VFR. Wind SW to NW 10-15kts. TUE...VFR early, then MVFR/SHRA/-TSRA. Wind SE 10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JRB AVIATION...TDH