Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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951 FXUS63 KMPX 011731 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1231 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A break in the rain today before rain returns on Thursday with a chance for thunderstorms. - The pattern favors warmer and wetter as we head into next week with rain chances Saturday and early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 312 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Today through Friday... Higher pressure moves in behind Tuesday`s rain keeping today dry. Not much in the way of advection today with mainly westerly winds, so we should see temperatures in the 60s. We will see at least periods of sun, but without Tuesday`s WAA reaching 70 is less likely. On Thursday an upper wave over the northern US Rockies moves into the Upper Midwest. This feature is resolved well in the deterministic models and QPF is widespread amongst all ensemble members. The spread here amongst membership is less will it rain and more how much will it rain. Part of this is related to where convection could form. The challenge for convection is if we will be able to be enough instability for convective initiation to occur. The best chance for this will be in southern Minnesota where it will be warmer. So what are we looking at QPF wise? With a clear source of forcing and NAEFS precipitable water values in the 80th to 90th percentile expect widespread QPF over a quarter inch. Over a half inch likely, especially along and south of I-94. Some more localized locations will see totals more around three quarters to an inch of rain. Some of these higher totals around an inch will depends on heavier showers or thunderstorms to develop, which is not a high confidence part of the forecast at this time. Rain moves out Thursday night into Friday morning with the rain chances largely staying to the north over northern Minnesota. With clouds and evaporative cooling Thursday will be the coolest day of the week with temperatures in 50s. This weekend into early next week... Temperatures will warm, especially Sunday into early next week. Saturday could be a little cooler, but still in the lower 60s with more cloud cover and a chance of rain as our next wave passes through. Very average precipitable water values on Saturday, so lower PoP and if it does rain chances are it won`t be heavy. Ensembles reflect this with a wide spread just in the occurrence of rain at all. A much better chance for rain early next week, but while the chance for rain looks likely there is still considerable spread as to which day it occurs on in ensemble guidance. Setup looks good overall with strong forcing and ample moisture for rain. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1219 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Aside from RWF, MKT, and (now) MSP, MVFR stratocumulus has been slow to clear this morning over the northern half of our region this morning. Clearing should occur from west to east during this afternoon, giving away to VFR tonight. However, showers will move in from southwest to northeast early Thursday morning, creating dropping cigs during the morning hours. MVFR to potentially IFR expected with cigs falling to near 1000 feet and heavier showers creating reduced visibilities. Gusty west- northwesterly winds this afternoon will slow to 5 knots to variable this evening before becoming easterly overnight. Easterly winds will increase to near 10 knots during Wednesday morning. KMSP...Gusty west-northwesterly winds slow by this evening with VFR expected through the overnight. Showers will arrive near 10Z Thursday with MVFR conditions expected after 13Z. Cigs should bottom out near or around 1000 feet through Thursday. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Wind W at 15G25 kts. SAT...MVFR/-RA. Wind NW at 10G15 kts. SUN...VFR. Wind S at 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NDC AVIATION...CTG