449
FXUS65 KREV 291932
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1232 PM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Mild temperatures and increased breezes are in store today with
cooler conditions near the Oregon border. A dry cold front will
arrive on Wednesday, bringing another round of cooler weather and
breezy winds. Otherwise, much of this week will be dry and
seasonably warm until chances of showers increase this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A beautiful late-April day is well underway across the region,
featuring mostly sunny skies and mild temperatures. Latest
satellite imagery places a southeastward advancing cold front
moving through the S OR/N CA vicinity, which will eventually march
through the region during the afternoon. As a result, temperatures
will be on the cool side near the OR border with widespread breezy
west winds shifting to northwest in the post-frontal environment.
Wind gusts of 25-35 mph will be common across much of western Nevada
this afternoon into the early evening with some wind prone spots
perhaps reaching 40 mph at times. Winds are expected to subside
late this evening as pressure gradients slacken.

The remainder of the week will be rather quiet weather-wise with
another bout of brisk north winds and cooler temperatures
accompanying a dry cold frontal passage on Wednesday. Chilly
overnight lows are in store for Sierra valleys and portions of
western Nevada Wednesday night into Thursday, particularly from
Lassen County into N Washoe County where temperatures will likely
fall into the low 20s. Otherwise, daytime highs this week (except
for Wednesday) will be seasonably warm as temperatures reach the 60s
and 70s for Sierra and western Nevada communities, respectively.

The 12Z suite of ensemble guidance is beginning to converge on a
more amplified eastern Pacific trough this weekend, a solution
that the GEFS continues to be much more bullish on compared to the
ECMWF. Given that the ECMWF is starting to jump on board,
confidence is increasing on more widespread and relatively
greater QPF totals over the weekend, along with cooler
temperatures and gusty winds. Blended guidance suggests a 30-50%
chance of QPF reaching a tenth of an inch across the Sierra north
of the Tahoe Basin and 15-30% chance of the same threshold for
western Nevada. High elevation snowfall is favored to be light
with the Sierra crest having a 10-30% chance of seeing 2+" of snow
over the weekend.

-Salas

&&

.AVIATION...

Generally good flying weather next few days with VFR conditions.
Breezy afternoon and early evening W/NW winds will occur today and
tomorrow, leading to some bumps and localized wind shear. Nothing
major with surface gusts on the order of 20-30 knots.

-Chris

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$