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000
FXUS61 KRLX 192324
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
724 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Passing cold front brings showers through late this evening.
Cooler/drier this weekend, then slowly warming through Tuesday
ahead of another cold front that brings wet weather back to the
area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 720 PM Friday...

The forecast remains on track. No changes were necessary this
time around, however thunderstorm probability at this point is
almost nil and there are some chances for thunderstorms in the
forecast still, but was inclined to leave them in due to the
cold front being in our area still.

As of 1258 PM Friday...

Cold front, currently near the Ohio River will continue to push east
this afternoon and evening, ending up east of the CWA late tonight.
Showers and storms will refire along this front, and some breaks in
the clouds have been noted, which will help to increase instability
and storm development this afternoon. Still a possibility for an
isolated strong to severe storm, mainly across southern portions of
the CWA, with a damaging wind risk the main threat.

Conditions will improve late tonight with some clearing possible.
Much in the way of fog development is not anticipated due to a light
wind lingering across the area before pressure gradient relaxes
towards morning. Saturday looks to be dry, with mid to high clouds
returning later in the period from a disturbance to our south
and west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Friday...

High pressure will slowly build into the region throughout the
short term period, with dry conditions expected area-wide.
Sunday will be on the chilly side, with high temperatures in the mid
50s to 60 across the lowlands, and 40s to low 50s in the mountains.
A disturbance sliding south of the area will provide some
mid/upper level clouds late Saturday night and Sunday. Patchy
frost is possible Sunday morning across mainly the northern
lowlands, with a more widespread frost possible across all of
the lowlands on Monday morning. Added a mention of this to the HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 125 PM Friday...

Lingering surface high pressure across the southeast CONUS will
continue to provide dry weather for the start of the extended
period. This will be short lived, however, as a cold front
shifts southeast towards the area from the Great Lakes region.
While Tuesday is progged to remain mainly dry, it could be a
bit breezy amid a tightening pressure gradient. Did trim
afternoon RH values down a bit from central guidance, with mid
20s to mid 30s across the area. High temperatures on Tuesday
return into the upper 60s to low 70s across the lowlands.

Scattered showers (and perhaps isolated storms) move across the
region Tuesday night into Wednesday as the front crosses.
Rainfall at this point looks relatively light, generally
0.25-0.50", and will probably be a welcomed rain by midweek as
the region continues to dry out. High temperatures on Wednesday
will generally be 5-10 degrees cooler following the passage of
the front, amid the potential for isolated showers.

High pressure noses into the region Wednesday night through the
remainder of the period, resulting in a return of dry weather,
mostly clear skies, and a gradual warming trend. Patchy frost is
a possibility both Wednesday and Thursday nights.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 730 PM Friday...

MVFR CIGs will slowly lift to VFR by tonight. Any lingering
showers will taper off as the cold front exits toward the east
tonight. Clouds are starting to exit from west to east and will
continue to do so until by late morning when they will mostly
clear out. Winds will stay out of the northwest and pick up in
intensity slightly for the afternoon where gusts in the low
20`s will be possible through the afternoon at most, if not all
sites.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
No widespread IFR is expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL/GW
NEAR TERM...SL/JZ
SHORT TERM...GW
LONG TERM...GW
AVIATION...JZ