989
FXUS61 KRLX 162033
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
433 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers and an isolated storm possible through this
evening. Better potential for rain arrives on Friday into the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 430 PM Thursday...

Showers continue to develop across portions of the CWA this
afternoon. PoPs have been expanded farther north and west to
reflect the coverage of these showers. No other significant
changes to the forecast have been made at this time.

As of 150 PM Thursday...

Satellite trends at the time of writing displayed one cluster
stretching through the I-64 and I-77 corridors of lingering
stratus, while clearing has taken place for southeast Ohio and
eastern and southern West Virginia. Dry air entrainment in the
midst of a departing front will encourage further clearing over
the next few hours. Areas that have branched out with peeks of
sunshine already will have the best chance of sufficient
diurnal heating today to achieve afternoon highs in the upper
70s, while those still socked in within heavier cloud coverage
will stay a few degrees cooler than guidance suggests.

Within the cumulus fields along the foothills and mountains of
West Virginia this afternoon, a few showers have begun to
sprout and progressing to the southeast. Lackluster upper level
support will mitigate additional growth outside of a rogue
thunderstorm today, keeping severe weather potential at bay.
Activity will diminish quickly with the loss of daytime heating.

Overnight conditions are progged to be quiet, with the exception
of low level clouds and river valley fog developing along the
higher terrain. For Friday, a disturbance ventures in from the
west, first reintroducing clouds overhead followed by a gradual
increase in precipitation. Light rainfall accumulations first
begin west of the Ohio River Friday morning, then spreading
eastward throughout the day and increasing in response to
potential convective trends. Localized flooding concerns become
more feasible as the day wears on around the forecast area,
especially in the event of multiple rounds of showers and storms
and/or heavier downbursts associated with convection.
Temperatures once again branch into the 60s (mountains) and mid
to upper 70s (lowlands) for Friday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM Thursday...

A southern stream developing surface low over the Midwest will
advect toward the area first by lifting a warm front into the
area and then putting us in the warm sector starting this
period. Showers and storms should be prevalent by Friday
evening, but activity should wane as the sun goes down into the
overnight. The surface low, supported by a small short wave
upper level trough, will setup directly west of us just like the
last system that came through in the beginning of the week.

The low is forecast to take a direct pass overhead just as the
last feature did and slowly exit Sunday morning. Between that
time numerous rounds of showers and possible thunderstorms
could be expected with excessive rainfall being the main threat
to the area. We were mainly primed with the last system and now
that we will have weak flow again we may have issues with hydro,
especially under slow moving or training storms. Since the
threat will be from scattered convection across the area, a
watch will likely not get issued for some instances of isolated
flash flooding, however we will have to keep an eye out still.
Cloudy skies and weak cold air advection will keep temperatures
subdued at seasonable or just below.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM Thursday...

By late Sunday morning, the aforementioned low will have kicked
out toward the east, but the lagging parent trough will slowly
move overhead throughout the day. Surface high pressure will
then build in from the northeast, believe it or not, and hold
settled weather across the area for Monday. Upper level ridging
will then move in from the west late Monday and hold settled
weather into Tuesday. Thereafter, we cannot rule out diurnal
shower and storm activity into Wednesday. By mid day Wednesday,
models have a frontal boundary sweeping through the area which
will promote unsettled weather if the mid to long rang models
are correct. This feature should be a quick mover opening up
Thursday to a nice settled high pressure day. With high pressure
and mainly clear skies with southerly flow expect temperatures
to be on the increase this period where Monday through
Wednesday will mainly be above seasonable.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 150 PM Thursday...

Persnickety IFR ceilings continue to fester over the central
lowlands this afternoon as a front drifts nearby. Skies are
anticipated to scatter over the next several hours, so opted to
include tempo groups for sites still socked within low level
stratus through 21Z then branching out into VFR for the evening.

Winds grow calm overnight and help to encourage another round of
fog and/or low stratus along the spine of the Appalachians
tonight. Elsewhere, pockets of MVFR ceilings trickle down into
the Ohio River Valley around daybreak Friday morning ahead of a
system encroaching for the weekend. Mixing may allow for low-end
VFR for the daytime hours Friday, with showers becoming more
likely as the afternoon wears on.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing improving ceilings may vary this
afternoon.



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
EDT 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR valley fog possible Friday morning. IFR possible in rain
showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon into the weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/MEK
NEAR TERM...MEK/JLB
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...MEK