440
FXUS61 KRNK 120531
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
131 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds today with dry weather through Monday. The
next storm system arrives Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 119 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- River valley fog this morning, locally dense.

- Dry and seasonal today with a northwest breeze.

Dense pockets of fog showing up on low cloud satellite in the
river valleys of the mountains and small areas across the I-81
corridor north of Roanoke. Anticipate at least some patchy fog
through dawn in this areas. Drier air with increasing winds
behind a front expected to clear fog out by 8am.

Today should see sunshine and a pressure gradient between the
high to our northwest and the low offshore to provide a breeze
into the afternoon, with gusts 15-25 mph possible across the
mountains and foothills, possibly the piedmont.

Highs today with full sunshine should be close to normal for mid
May with mid 60s to around 70 in the mountains to mid to upper
70s east.

Tonight, high pressure works overhead with light/calm winds. May
start to cloud up late as warm advection high clouds work in
from the southwest. This will figure into the lows tonight as
clear skies at the onset of the evening with lighter winds could
drop temps faster and a few areas could see lower 40s, possibly
touching the upper 30s in the valleys of WV into the Alleghanys.

Forecast confidence is moderate on fog and temps and above
average on winds/sky cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 110 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for warmer conditions on Monday.

2) Unsettled weather will arrive during Monday night into Tuesday
with showers and thunderstorms.

Weak high pressure will move offshore on Monday. A building upper
level ridge combined with southwest flow at the surface should
advect warmer and moister air from the Gulf of Mexico to the
Appalachian Mountains for Monday afternoon. However, the jump in
warmth and moisture will also provide increasing clouds and
instability as a low pressure system approaches the central
Mississippi River Valley on Monday night. Showers and thunderstorms
will begin along the southern Blue Ridge and far southwest Virginia
during Monday night and spread throughout the remainder of the Mid
Atlantic by Tuesday. The unsettled weather will persist through
Tuesday night as the low pressure system crosses West Virginia.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 110 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for unsettled weather to continue through
Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms.

2) Drier air may briefly return by Thursday, but more showers and
thunderstorms are possible to end the week.

A low pressure system will head eastward across Virginia on
Wednesday to keep conditions unsettled with ongoing chances of
showers and thunderstorms. Thunder chances will diminish towards
Wednesday night, and the showers may eventually subside by Thursday
morning as weak high pressure passes to the north. However, more
moisture should return towards Thursday night as another low
pressure system crosses the Southeast. Although the models still
show notable discrepancies, the odds of unsettled weather for the
Appalachian Mountains appear to be higher for Friday. The chance of
showers and thunderstorms might linger into Saturday as the low
pressure system heads to the East Coast.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 125 AM EDT Sunday...

Dense fog possible at LWB this morning and could see IFR fog at
BCB/DAN with low clouds at BLF, VFR elsewhere. This fog and low
clouds expected to gone by 13z as drier air arrives and
northwest winds increase to 8-13kts with gusts to 20-25kt
possible in the mountains/Roanoke by late morning.

Wind subsides after sunset with clear skies.

Above average confidence on winds/sky cover and moderate on fog.


Extended Aviation Outlook...

VFR conditions are expected through Monday under dry, high
pressure.

Precipitation and sub-VFR ceilings and visibilities return to
the region as early as Monday night through midweek. Thursday
should return to VFR most areas with some lingering MVFR
possible in the mountains.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...AMS/WP