Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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134 FXUS63 KSGF 082309 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 609 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorms expected today with very large hail up to the size of baseballs, damaging winds up to 60-80 mph, and tornadoes. Highest potential for severe storms along and southeast of a Nevada to Warsaw to Rolla line. - Localized heavy rainfall may result in flooding, especially for areas northeast of a line from Stockton to Marshfield to of Highway 54. A Flood Watch remains in effect for this area, where storms may drop 1 to 3 inches of rain with locally higher amounts of 3 to 6 inches. - Drier and cooler conditions for late week and weekend. - More rain potential for the beginning of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 The region will see active weather this afternoon through this evening. A warm remained located across central Missouri. A cold front was also located across eastern Kansas into eastern Oklahoma. The Ozarks and far southeastern Kansas are the warm sector with increasing moisture and instability as the region saw no significant precipitation of storms this morning. Analysis this afternoon continued to show several boundaries across the region thanks to earlier convection, differential heating from cloud cover and other small scale waves. The region, in the warm sector, has seen temperatures increase to into the lower to middle 80s with Td`s in the upper 60s to around 70. This is helping to produce a favorably unstable airmass over the area. Models as indicating between 2500-4500 J/kg of CAPE this afternoon with no CAP over the region. The latest runs show 0-6KM Bulk shear in the 40-50kt range from the WSW with a 35 to 45kt LLJ over the region. This is accompanied by upper level support from a strong 250mb Jet streak. A Tornado Watch is in effect until 00z (7PM) with the potential for large hail, to baseballs in size, with 1000-1300 j/kg of CAPE in the hail growth zone (-10 to -30 *C). This, coupled with a relatively long straight Hodograph support, supercells with splitting cells possible. Winds from 60 to 80 mph will also be possible along with tornadoes. Looking at some of the CIPS/SPC analogs, several matches to current parameters showed storms with up to softball hail possible. A cold front will move through the area tonight which will shift winds to the northwest. This will also bring into the region drier air and a cooler airmass. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 50s as the cooler air filters into the region with clearing skies. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 The region will be under southwesterly to westerly flow aloft Thursday with a shortwave ridge moving across the plains into the Ozarks. With mostly clear skies but a cooler airmass, afternoon highs will still climb into the middle 70`s. Friday into Sunday - An upper level trough will swing out of the northern plains and drag cooler air and quiet weather into the region Friday with the upper level pattern becoming northwesterly allowing surface high pressure to move over the area for the weekend. Sunday night into Tuesday - Upper level ridging will slide over the region Sunday as an upper level low digs into the plains. Southwesterly flow will begin to allow increasing moisture to filter into the region through the day. By Sunday night the ridge will shift east as the upper low slides into the central plains before moving into the Ozarks though the day Monday. This will be accompanied by areas of rainfall and scattered thunderstorms though severe potential is very limited at this time. The low will make slow progress across the Ozarks lingering in into Tuesday with continued chances for showers and storms. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 604 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 A line of severe thunderstorms will move across southern Missouri this evening. Storms will be in the vicinity of KJLN and KSGF through around 01-02Z, but move to the east away from the terminals. Storms will approach the KBBG airfield through 04Z before moving east. Where storms occur, flight conditions will be MVFR to IFR. Behind the storms, conditions will improve with ceilings lifting and winds shifting out of the west to northwest. Flight conditions will be VFR behind the storms through the day Thursday. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for MOZ055>058-067>071- 078>083-091-092-098. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hatch LONG TERM...Hatch AVIATION...Hatch