128
FXUS63 KSGF 120515
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1215 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

...06Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances (10-40%) return
  Sunday afternoon and evening then become widespread (90-100%)
  late Sunday night into Monday. Continued chances (20-70%)
  linger into Tuesday, particularly east of Springfield.

- Additional shower and storm chances (30-60%) will be possible
  late in the week as another system moves through the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Quiet weather through tonight with gradually increasing cloud
cover and lows in the 50s (some colder spots over the eastern
Ozarks river valleys).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

With a low pressure system moving west to east through the area,
chances for showers and thunderstorms return Sunday afternoon,
are maximized across the entire area late Sunday night through
Monday, then end from west to east Tuesday. Better instability
will stay to the south, so no severe weather is expected, but we
could see rises in water levels on area streams due to new
rainfall on top of saturated ground.

Shortwave energy may bring showers and storms back to the area
late Wednesday into Friday, but model spread limits confidence
for this period.

Overall, temperatures look to be near normal over the next 7
days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

A few low-level stratus clouds are filtering into SW MO as
surface high pressure slides through to the northeast and puts
the region in weak southwest flow. VFR conditions are expected
for the most part this TAF period, but a front is expected to
swing through the region beginning in the afternoon/evening,
bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. These
probabilities are low until after this TAF period, so PROB30s
chosen for now. Nonetheless, while ceilings will drop to about
10kft, category reduction is not expected except temporarily
with any showers at the airfield.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Nelson