431
FXUS63 KAPX 141015
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
615 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Poor air quality due to smoke today

- Low chances for an isolated storm or two over eastern U.P. today

- Warming trend today and Tuesday, with better rain chances
  returning mid to late week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 243 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Current satellite depicts mostly clear skies over northern MI this
morning. However, some surface observations are showing visibilities
dropping to 3 - 6 SM over the eastern U.P. which is indicative of
some local mist. Surface obs over WI (Door Peninsula) have 3-5 SM
vis due to haze reaching the surface. This airmass will move over
northern MI this morning, leading to poor air quality over much of
the state today. Elevated smoke will not inhibit radiational
cooling potential tonight, and with surface dew points in the mi 60s
patchy fog will be possible in some areas (especailly near the
coast). Some of this could mix with the smoke this morning and
result in smog. These reduced visibilities could linger through mid
morning, however mixing heights will eventually rise later this
morning and afternoon.

A very localized and weak area of surface high pressure will
continue eastward across the upper penisula this morning. Radar
shows discrete scattered convection along the boundary moving across
Lk Superior. This will move into drier air as the boundary becomes
weaker and washed out later this morning. Model soundings do suggest
an environment where an isolated storm or two could initiate later
this morning over the eastern U.P.. However, this weak feature will
quickly be overtaken by WAA from the west. If an isolated cell can
form, expect occasional lightning and brief heavy rain. The
environment is also conducive to gusty outflow winds and small hail
with storms that can strengthen.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 243 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Warm sector air will reach all of northern MI tonight which will set
up a hot day for Tuesday. Afternoon high temperatuers will likely
reach into the low 90s with skies mostly sunny to partly cloudy.
Shower chances creep into the U.P. Tuesday due to a warm front just
north of there. A surface low (moving that warm front over Lk
Superior) will become overwhelmed by a N/S frontal passage
Wednesday. Mid level zonal flow over the Great Lakes region and an
approaching shortwave will likely stall the boundary somewhere over
northern MI. The forecast is showing temperatures cooling a couple of
degrees Wednesday, however areas south of the tip of the mitt could
see hot temperatures linger one more day (highs into the low 90s).

There is likely hood that we will see more widespread precipitation
chances mid to late week this week, however what form that is in and
the exact timing is tough to pin down. Global models show the larger
features sliding southward, carrying a boundary and broad upper wave
over the state and resulting in more widespread rain with maybe an
embedded storm or two that produces some lightning and heavy rain.
The NAM is showing an convectively driven shortwave and surface
cyclone moving over MI early Thursday, which would result in
stronger storms. For what its worth, CAMs are hinting at the intial
convection blossoming over the stationary boundary in NE Tuesday
evening (the start of cyclogenesis).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 614 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

HZ/FU will continue to be the main aviation story thru the TAF
period. MVFR to low end VFR visibilities will be common today,
with perhaps some improvement as we head into this evening. Expecting
cigs to remain VFR with some passing high clouds/smoke and some
higher based cumulus this afternoon. No significant wind
concerns through the period.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ016>018-
     020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...MSB