Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 220953

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
553 AM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 301 AM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018

...Little change...

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Dry northwest flow prevails aloft, while
extensive area of high pressure dominates the surface. Combination
of the two continues to result in quiet, dry, and seasonably chilly
conditions across the northwoods. Thinning high clouds overhead,
partially tied to departing east coast storm, with another area of
thinner cirrus dropping southeast across Lake Superior, those tied
to moisture devoid shortwave trough slicing across that region.

Simply not much change expected, this despite that passing shortwave
today, as surface high pressure and a very dry low and mid level
environment remain.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Same as the last few and temperature trends.

Details: Once again, not too much to talk about. That passing wave
may bring a bit of high clouds today and tonight, but skies expected
to remain partly to mostly sunny/clear. Wave and reinforcing area of
high pressure work in tandem to keep cool northerly flow in-place,
with the actual low level thermal environment changing little from
that which was observed yesterday. The result, high temperatures
today will be very similar to those on Wednesday, with readings
ranging through the 30s. And, those mostly clear skies and dry low
level environment will result in a good radiational cooling response
tonight, dropping temperatures back into the teens across all but
some of the immediate coastal areas.


.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 301 AM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018

...Continued Quiet but Chilly...

Primary Forecast Concern...Minimal.

Strong surface high pressure ridging in from the north will yield
more quiet but chilly weather. Temperatures remaining a few degrees
below normal (did lower night time lows a little).

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 301 AM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018

...Moderating Temperatures Early Next Week...

Primary Forecast Concern...Minimal.

The strong ridge of high pressure will take its time moving by to
our north and east Sunday. As the ridge moves off to our east, the
chilly temperatures will moderate some Sunday afternoon as we get
into a milder return flow. Truly mild readings are still expected
early next week with highs well into the 40s with a few 50 degree
readings possible in some areas. High pressure should keep the
region dry through the day Monday. A front and associated area of
low pressure will bring increasing rain chances Monday night and
especially Tuesday. Rain chances will then diminish Wednesday but
temperatures will remain on the mild side. Looking farther ahead,
another shot of arctic air (and maybe even some snow) is possible
for Easter weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 550 AM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018

VFR conditions expected into early this evening with just a few
passing high clouds. Surge of some low level moisture, along with
some potential lake contribution, looks to likely produce MVFR
cigs later this evening through the overnight at KAPN, with just
some scattered lower cigs at KPLN. Expecting just a few high
clouds elsewhere. Light north to northwest winds expected through
the duration.


Issued at 301 AM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018

North/northeast winds expected to slowly back to a more
north-northwest direction today into this evening. Reestablishment
of tightening pressure gradient and more favorable wind direction
for coastal convergence may be enough to tip the scales to a few
small craft advisory producing wind gusts on portions of northern
Lake Huron this afternoon and early evening. Winds veer to a more
northerly direction again later tonight and Friday, with wind speeds
and waves expected to remain below headline criteria. Dry conditions
to continue for the next several days.




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