Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 221409

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1009 AM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Low pressure situated off the East Coast will pull away from the
region today, perhaps bringing a few wrap-around snow showers in the
mountains today. An upper trough will swing across New York tomorrow
and may produce scattered snow showers over the Adirondacks.
Otherwise, surface high pressure will keep the weather dry over the
next several days. Temperatures will be near to slightly below
normal through the first half of the weekend before moderating to
above normal by the middle of next week.


As of 1007 AM EDT Thursday...Per GOES-16 VIS imagery, partial
clearing is taking place from W-E across the North Country late
this morning as low pressure exits well southeast of Cape Cod.
Have updated to reduce chance of flurries/sprinkles, reduce
cloud cover, and raise valley temps into the lower 40s for this
afternoon`s highs with somewhat better insolational heating
expected. Remainder of the fcst is unchanged.

Previous discussion...Low pressure continues to spin off the
southern New England coast this morning while high pressure
remains firmly lodged to the north and west. The dry air
associated with the ridge has been very hard for the low`s
precipitation to overcome; radar returns have been light with no
indications of any snow actually reaching the ground in
southeast Vermont. Radar signatures have actually been
decreasing recently, so other than perhaps some light flurries,
don`t anticipate any snow to fall until a bit later today. Winds
will turn to the northwest this afternoon as the low lifts well
east of our area, and this may be enough to produce a few
showers across the favored upslope areas of the Adirondacks and
Greens. Little to no snow accumulation is expected. A weak 850
mb jet looks to develop on the backside of the departing low
this afternoon and could see some of the higher winds mix down
with a bit of daytime heating this afternoon. Gusts up to 30 mph
will be possible. Highs today will be in the mid to upper 30s
in the wider valleys while the mountains will be in the lower to
mid 30s.

Better chances for precipitation arrive later tonight into Friday,
especially over the northern Adirondacks, as a shortwave travels
across Ontario, western NY, and PA in the northwest flow aloft.  The
resultant lift along with increasing moisture will allow scattered
snow showers to develop over the northern Adirondacks late tonight
through Friday, spreading eastward into Vermont in the afternoon.
Highs will be in the lower to mid 30s in the mountains, limiting any
snow accumulation to less than an inch. Temperatures will be a few
degrees warmer in the valleys, so any snow showers in these areas
may mix with and/or change to rain for a time.


As of 320 AM EDT Thursday...Mid/upper level trof prevails across
the ne conus for this upcoming weekend. Temps will continue to
be below normal thru Sunday...with another modified surge of
colder air arriving late Sat into Sunday. Clouds will have an
impact on temps, for both daytime highs and overnight
recent trend of large diurnal swings will be limited this
weekend. In addition...potent s/w energy dropping south will
increase with some increasing mid level moisture and low level
upslope flow to produce terrain driven snow showers. The best
combination of moisture and forcing occurs between 06z-15z have mentioned high chc pops in the mountains. Any
accumulation will be light maybe an inch or so, northern VT
mountains and parts of the NEK. Tricky temp forecast with
northerly winds both Sat/Sun and some modest low level cold air
advection with clouds. Progged 925mb temps between -6c and -8c
with coldest values in the cpv/slv maybe keep highs only in the
30s with 20s mountains Saturday and again on Sunday...which is
now 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Expect lows in the mid teens
to mid 20s...but if more clearing develops than anticipated
these values will be 5 to 10 degrees colder.


As of 320 AM EDT Thursday...Large scale pattern change develops
by early next downstream flow over the western
Atlantic becomes strongly blocked. Large scale models continue
to show a high over low pattern developing downstream...which
places our cwa in favorable sweet spot of building high pres
both aloft and at the surface. This pattern will result in
modifying temps by early next week...with mainly dry conditions
expected thru Tuesday. Given the deep layer from large scale
subsidence...anticipating large swings in daily temps again for
Sunday Night thru Tuesday...with a trend toward above normal
values. Progged 850mb temps btwn -2c and -4c Monday...should
support highs mid 30s to mid 40s. 925mb and 850mb temps rise
above 0c on Tuesday with values btwn 2 and 5c...supporting mid
40s to l/m 50s. Based on plenty of sunshine and thermal profiles
have gone 3 to 5 degrees above superblend. Potential issues
could be limited mixing (shallow low level inversion) with
ridge axis directly overhead and remaining snow pack.
Otherwise...large scale blocking pattern slowly breaks down
midweek with a chance for mainly rain showers Weds before cooler
air arrives Thursday into Friday.


Through 12Z Friday...TAFs will remain predominantly VFR
throughout the TAF period. Mid and high clouds will remain in
place as a coastal low pivots offshore. A few flurries or light
snow showers will be possible this afternoon as winds begin to
become more northwesterly around the departing low. Ceilings
will lower to around 4000 ft after 00z Fri as an upper trough
approaches from the eastern Great Lakes. Local MVFR ceilings are
possible in the higher terrain, along with some scattered snow
showers, especially at KSLK. Winds will pick up late this
morning/early afternoon with gusts of 15-20 kt possible, then
lessening this evening.


Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
Saturday: MVFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA,
Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.




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