Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 242123

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
523 PM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018

An upper level trough will remain over the northeast conus this
weekend, then lift out early next week as ridging builds in from
the Great Lakes. A slow moving cold front will likely push
through the region during the second half of next week.


Very dry air over the region this afternoon, but it`s still cold
aloft and that has generated isold to sct CU over the northeast
mountains. There is an outside shot at a few flurries late this a moisture challenged cold front drops southward
over central PA. HRRR actually creates a rogue shower over the
south central mountains. Think we`ll stay dry though. This
front will usher in quite cold air for March on northerly flow.
Dry air and low inversion heights will limit moisture from Lk
Ontario tonight, but still expect some stratocu to reach into
the mountains of northern PA overnight. Elsewhere, expect a
mainly clear night. Lows will range from 10 to 15 over the
highest terrain of the north central mountains, to the mid 20s
over the Lower Susq Valley.


Most of central PA should be within a region of large scale
subsidence Sunday, west of potent shortwave diving southeast
across New England. There could be some flurries that work into
my far eastern sections, but otherwise mainly sunny and chilly
conditions are expected for most of the forecast area.
The pool of coldest 850mb temps will be over southern Pa Sunday
afternoon, so expect the lowest temps relative to normal over
that part of the state. Model 850mb temps support highs ranging
from the mid 30s over the Laurel Highlands, to the mid 40s
across the Middle Susq Valley.


High confidence in a strong upper level short-wave ridge builds
across the region Monday bringing a sunny and dry day. Looked
like a good day to lower dew points and RH. Afternoon min RH in
the 30-35 percent range.

Ridge slides east by Tuesday a.m. Just a slight chance Tuesday
morning that some light precipitation with warm air advection
out ahead of the next system will work into the northwest zones.
Surface temperatures start the day below 32 so put zr-- with
the 15-20 percent pop. Warm frontal rain showers ride the
western mountains north into NY with little advancement east
into central PA during the day. Overnight cooler locations would
see a mix of rain and snow.

POPs increase Wednesday as a weakening cold front over western
PA begins to slowly nudge its way southeast late in the day.
Scattered to likely rain showers with the front through
Wednesday night. Between showers and the uncertainty of the
frontal position there is uncertainty on the high temperature
forecast. Model blends are in the 40s most locations but some
areas could jump up into the low 50s.

This uncertainty grows into Thursday as the front is stalled
with the strong ridge which remains to the east and now possible
low pressure waves moving northeast along the frontal zone
continuing the chance for scattered showers. Temperature differences
range from the mid 40s to lower 60s. A blend puts most sites in
the low to mid 50s. best chance for 60 degrees is the lower
Susq Valley.

The week should end with temperatures near seasonal normals but
model solutions are very divergent leaving much uncertainty in
the weather forecast.


VFR conditions across the region this afternoon, and expected to
persist into Monday. Short term models seem to have backed off
lower stratus developing overnight, so while there might be a
slight risk of a brief period of MVFR stratus across KBFD and
KJST late tonight, will not mention in TAFs.


Sun-Mon...Mainly VFR.

Tue and Tue Ngt...Increasing clouds with chance MVFR in SHRA
west and central.

Wed...Widespread MVFR Cigs with SHRA.




LONG TERM...Watson
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