Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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FXUS62 KGSP 290755 CCA
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
355 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure settles over the Southeast to start the weekend.
A warming trend is expected through the first part of next week,
with temperatures well above normal. A cold front is forecast to
reach our region from the northwest in the middle of next week,
bringing another chance of rain and cooler temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 135 AM EDT Friday: a flat upper ridge begins to spread
over our area, as the ridge axis crosses east of the MS River.
At the sfc, dry high pressure will be centered over the Deep South,
while a coastal low lingers along the New England Coast. This will
keep a NE-SW pressure gradient atop the forecast area, and with fun
sunshine and dry air mass, deep mixing will be on tap. Breezy WLY to
WNWLY winds can be expected across most of our NC zones, especially
along and north of I-40. Less wind expected in our southern zones,
where a lee trough backs with winds to SWLY. The 850 mb flow will
still have a downslope component, and dewpts should mix out and
cause minimum RH values to fall below 25% for most of the area
(see fire wx section below). Temps will be a couple categories
warmer than yesterday`s readings, mainly in the lower 70s east of
the mountains and in the 60s in the mountain valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 am Friday: With an upper trough digging into Baja in the
short term, a low-amplitude ridge will slowly build across the
central Conus, but generally fast/quasi-zonal flow is expected over
the East through the period. A baroclinic zone extending from the
Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic is expected to activate late in
the period, as weak height falls ripple north of our area through
the quasi-zonal flow. Any associated shower development should
remain well north of the area. However, increasing (albeit scant)
moisture on Sunday could combine with westerly upslope flow to allow
a stray shower to develop across the northern NC mountains during
the afternoon, warranting a very small PoP. Otherwise, conditions
will be dry and very warm, with temps expected to range from ~10-15
degrees above climo through much of the period. Another day of
enhanced fire danger appears likely Saturday, as RH is forecast to
again reach critical values. Winds will also be quite gusty Sat
afternoon...but are not quite expected to reach critical levels.
Despite warmer conditions Sunday, increasing surface dewpoints are
expected to result in significant RH recovery, likely ending our run
of fire danger products.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 325 am Friday: An upper low is forecast to meander from the
Rockies to the Great Lakes during the first couple of days of the
medium range, just ahead of a strong short wave trough digging
strongly southward from the Canadian Prairie. These features are
forecast by the global models to carve out a rather deep upper low
over the East by the end of the day Thursday. In the interim, a low
amplitude ridge will progress across our region, resulting in
continued dry and very warm (almost 15 degrees above climo)
conditions during the first couple of days of the period. By
mid-week, deepening cyclone and associated frontal system will begin
impacting the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, with PoPs ramping up
during the day Tuesday, peaking Wed night before tapering off early
Wed. The pattern will be supportive of some degree of severe storm
threat, as warm and increasingly moist/unstable conditions will be
in place ahead of the forcing. However, the degree of the threat
will be somewhat dependent upon the time of day/our ability to
maximize buoyancy, as current indications are that shear parameters,
while adequate, won`t be especially outstanding due to strongly
positive-tilt nature of the upper trough. Conditions become much
cooler by Thursday in the wake of the front...near/even a little
below normal...with perhaps a period of high elevation northwest
flow snow showers Wed/Wed night.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect VFR conditions thru the period at
all sites, as dry high pressure builds in. Light NW wind should
become WNW or due W after daybreak, then pick up with frequent
low-end gusts at the NC sites around 17z. In the Upstate, winds are
expected to back to WSW or SW, but not expected to be gusty like in
NC. Winds become light around sunset, toggling to SW at all sites.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to persist across the fcst area
thru the weekend as dry high pressure lingers over the region. Rain
chances will increase early next week with associated restrictions
possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Low RH values are expected again today with deep mixing and
westerly flow. Winds, although occasionally gusty, will not be as
strong as yesterday. Since NE GA will have several hours of critical
RH and dry 10-hr fuels, a Fire Danger Statement has been issued from
noon EDT to 8:00 PM EDT today. For NC and SC, coordination with land
managers will be needed later this morning for any statements.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Increased Fire Danger from noon EDT today through this evening
     for GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...ARK
FIRE WEATHER...ARK


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