Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS61 KGYX 191730

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
130 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Below normal temperatures will linger through at least mid week
as winter holds on. One or more low pressure systems are
expected to develop off the mid Atlantic coast midweek and
currently look to pass far enough south of our region at this
time to avoid a major snow event. Another area of low pressure
will well to the south of New England next weekend.


130 PM Update...Just a few minor adjustments to temperatures at
this hour. Otherwise, sunny skies continue for the balance of
the afternoon.

945 AM Update...Little change to the going forecast for the rest
of the afternoon. Gusty winds with below normal temperatures
despite sunny skies continue to be expected.

635 am Update: Clear skies continue across the region. Had to
lower some early morning temps for next few hours based on
latest obs data.

Previous Discussion:
A broad cyclonic and cold northwest flow will continue today.
Conditions will remain very dry with mostly sunny skies but with
temps well below normal. Some gusty winds can once again be


Canadian high pres gradually settles over the area tonight so
winds will be light but continued very cold temps. Overnight
radiational cooling will once again allow for a very cold night.
During the day Tuesday sunny skies expected once again as
surface high pres becomes centered over the region. On Tue temps
will moderate some but will still be below normal.


A complex area of low pressure will move south and east of New
England by Wednesday. Models trying to come into agreement that
there will be two pieces of energy that will consolidate into
one intensifying system east of Cape Cod by Wednesday night.
Latest 00Z model suite does show the potential for some light
snow to reach the coastline Wednesday night during the closest
passage of the offshore system. However this remains a very low
confidence forecast.

The upper level pattern will remain somewhat disorganized as
well during this midweek period. Several weak short waves will
likely enter the large scale upper level low. Models are having
difficulty with the timing of how this all unfolds. A second
upper level cutoff low will remain just north of the Saint
Lawrence River Valley as well. This additional complicating
factor will make for a challenging forecast over the next day or

With an upper trough over the forecast area late in the week and
over the weekend, expect a few scattered snow showers. The
greatest chance will be up in the mountains where upslope
conditions are expected.

Below normal temperatures will continue with highs only in the
30s and perhaps the lower 40s for the rest of the work week. By
next weekend, the pattern appears it may repeat itself with low
pressure intensifying over the Mid Atlantic Region before moving
out to sea. An upper level trough may bring some scattered snow
showers to the region along with a continuation of below normal


Short Term /through Tuesday/...VFR.

Long Term...Mainly VFR conditions with ceilings and perhaps
visibilities lowering in light snow along the coast Wednesday
night into early Thursday.


Short Term/Through Tuesday/...Gusty northwest flow will continue
over the outer waters today and into tonight so extended the SCA
for the outer waters until midnight.

Long Term...Winds may approach gale force with low pressure
passing by to our south and east during the midweek period.


A prolonged northeasterly fetch Wednesday into Thursday will
build seas and storm surge values. Currently it appears possible
that a 1 to 2 foot surge will occur around the times of high
tide Wed night...mainly from York County ME to the Seacoast of
NH. With astronomical tides increasing, it is not out of the
realm of possibility that Portland, Hampton and perhaps Fort
Point approaches or exceeds their flood stages Wednesday night.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ150>152-


$$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.