Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 220847

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
347 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Easterly winds continue today and most of tonight for Central
Illinois. Weak ridging from the Great Lakes back into the High
Plains as a surface low skirts to the south along the Gulf States
today, bringing storms along the southern tier of the country. The
upper level low associated with those storms is more or less cut
off from the more progressive flow to the south. Cyclonic flow and
some moisture from the system to the south expected to keep mid/high
clouds in place for the region today. That being said, the last
two days are any indication, in concert with pretty dry soundings
below 12kft, any precip will likely be mostly a virga issue to the
north through today. South of Interstate 70 has a better chance of
maybe seeing a shower before tonight. Better chances for precip
will come with a slow saturation of the column as the moisture
lifts into Central IL. Some concern that the models may be rushing
it somewhat, as well as being a little too far north with the
showers in the overnight hours.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018
Extended forecast remains largely unchanged. Precip chances with
varied solutions of small waves moving into the region around the
main upper low moving into the Ohio River Valley early this week.
Best chances for Monday as the low wobbles a bit to the north,
but overall, precip is a scattered threat into mid week. GFS and
ECMWF differing somewhat in the kicker low mid week, with the NAM
coming down on the side of the ECMWF. Both models kick the weekend
low out, but the GFS phases a wave in the northern stream with a
wave out of the Rockies closing in and bringing precip with it
Tues night/Wed. The NAM and the ECMWF maintain a split flow,
pushing a large chunk of energy to the north, phasing with the
first low well to the east. This leaves the Colorado low a little
weaker and moving into the Gulf States as an open wave aloft about
24 hours later in a more NWrly flow set up. ECMWF a little drier
as a result, with the precip moving to the north and to the south.
Not yet seeing any consistency from the models enough to weigh one
a little heavier than the other. As a result, the blended forecast
has several rounds of low chance pops. A little drier than prev
forecast and that may be the better choice for now.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

VFR aviation weather conditions will persist across the central
Illinois terminals through the 06Z TAF valid time. Mid-high level
CIGs are anticipated, as are easterly winds. The winds, once
again, will be gusty at times during the afternoon hours Sunday.




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