Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 270449
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1149 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

.UPDATE...The forecast is on track for a hot Memorial Day Weekend.
Lake MI lake breezes will occur each day.


&&

.AVIATION(06Z TAFS)...Mostly clear skies and VFR conditions
tonight through Sunday night.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 932 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018)

UPDATE...The forecast is on track for the Memorial Day Weekend.

MARINE...Relatively light winds and low wave heights for the
holiday weekend. Lake breezes each day.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 713 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018)

UPDATE...The upper ridge over the Great Plains will build into
the wrn Great Lakes into Memorial Day. Thus, hot temps will
continue. Temps should be a few degrees warmer on Sunday than
today. Dewpoints will drop once again through the day into the 50s
to lower 60s resulting in low relative humidity. Heat index
values will equal the temperatures in the afternoon, mainly in the
lower 90s. A Lake MI lake breeze will occur by late morning at the
lakefront and push inland over the lake counties through the
afternoon.

AVIATION(00Z TAFS)...Mostly clear skies and VFR conditions
tonight through Sunday night.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 244 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018)

SHORT TERM...

Tonight through Memorial Day...Forecast Confidence High.

Isolated thunderstorms over northeast Iowa in an area where
forecast soundings show a shallow area of limited moisture around
6 thsd ft. Model soundings across southern Wisconsin are drier, so
do not expect any shows/isolated thunderstorms. Also the area near
the U.P. Wisconsin border should stay well north of Sheboygan.

A weak northern stream shortwave exits Wisconsin tonight and
moves across the Eastern Great Lakes Sunday night. A general
west/northwest flow pattern aloft exists along the U.S. canadian
border, before an upper ridge builds across Wisconsin Monday.

Overall, flow is weak with hot and somewhat humid conditions.
Forecast soundings show moderate to high CAPE values. However
little if any forcing. As a result model runs are fairly dry.

With the light flow expect a lake breeze Sunday and Memorial Day,
but inland temperatures will continue to be hot. High
temperatures are expected to be near record high values.

Monday night and Tuesday...Forecast Confidence High.

The upper ridge gradually moves east as an upstream shortwave
moves across the northern and central plains. This is a little
slower than previous runs, so much or all of Tuesday should be
dry.

Southeast winds brings a steady cooler light southeast wind off
Lake Michigan, but well inland temperatures will continue to be
very warm.

LONG TERM...

Tuesday night through Friday...Forecast Confidence is Medium.

The upstream shortwave moves into Wisconsin later Wednesday and
into Thursday, as the remnants of Alberto pushes north toward the
upper Ohio Valley. The resultant mid/upper trough reaches the
Eastern Great Lakes by Friday. This will increase the chance of
rain.

Slightly cooler, but still warm, temperatures are expected.

Saturday...Forecast Confidence is Medium.

Upper ridging across the Lake Michigan area Saturday morning
weakens, as another upstream trough moves across the Central
Plains. Surface high pressure should keep any precipitation
chances low.

AVIATION(21Z TAFS)...

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Another lake
breeze, turning winds southeast, will kick in again Sunday
afternoon at KMKE/KENW.

MARINE...

Light east/southeast winds with a lake breeze this afternoon will
become more southwest tonight. Another Lake breeze is expected
Sunday afternoon. Winds and waves will be well below small craft
advisory levels into early next week. There could be some fog at
times through the weekend due to the warm and moist airmass in
place across the Great Lakes region.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...Gehring
Tonight/Sunday and Aviation/Marine...Hentz
Sunday Night through Saturday...Hentz



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