Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
775 FXUS62 KMLB 092031 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 431 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE... ...Near Red Flag Conditions Forecast Friday with Breezy South to Southwest Winds... ...Above Normal to Near Record Temperatures Forecast Friday... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 431 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 Currently-Tonight... High pressure remains over the western Atlantic. Analysis charts show a mid/upper level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and a shortwave trough over the deep Southeast. Current temperatures are in the upper 80s to low 90s along the coast and the low to mid 90s inland with heat index values in the low 90s to low 100s. Scattered showers and lighting storms are located over southern Georgia and South Carolina associated with outflow well ahead of a cold front. Convection is forecast to diminish as the outflow/MCS moves southeast across northern Florida into the . However, a shower or storm cannot be ruled out with gusty winds across Volusia county and the associated waters. Low temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 60s to mid 70s. Skies are forecast to increase with partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies into the early morning hours ahead of the outflow/MCS that`s expected to weaken to the north of central Florida into the early morning hours. Friday... Offshore flow will increase into Friday well ahead of a cold front that is expected to arrive into the late evening and early overnight hours. Winds are forecast to increase from the south- southwest at 15-20mph with gusts up to 30mph. Afternoon highs are forecast to reach the low to upper 90s under mostly sunny to partly sunny skies. Heat index values are expected in the upper 90s to low 100s. Isolated to scattered showers and isolated lighting storms are forecast to develop Friday afternoon and into the overnight hours over Lake, Volusia, Seminole, Brevard, Orange, and northern Osceola counties (PoPs ~20-40%). The strong storm threat will be conditional on whether we can get enough moisture into the late afternoon and evening Friday. The SPC has outlooked areas along and north of a line that stretches from southern Brevard to northwest Osceola counties with a Marginal Risk for severe storms. The primary hazards will be wind gusts to 40-60mph, small hail, and cloud to ground lightning strikes. High temperatures are expected to reach the upper 90s to low 100s this afternoon. Even though heat index values are expected to be below heat advisory criteria (108+), this level of heat for this time of year will affect anyone working outside and/or those in direct sunlight for extended periods of time. Remember to take frequent breaks and stay hydrated, especially if you are spending extend periods outside this afternoon. Friday night-Sunday... Broad mid-level troughing Saturday becomes zonal Sunday. Shortwave energy will traverse across north/central Florida and the southeast US through the period. At the surface, high pressure will continue to shift eastward across the southeast US through the weekend, keeping the frontal boundary south of us. The aforementioned cold front will be shifting southward across the local area on Friday overnight into early Saturday morning, finally departing to the south by Saturday afternoon. High pressure will build in across the area behind the front on Saturday and into Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers will continue Friday evening and into the overnight hours. The highest potential for showers and storms will be along and north of the I-4 corridor into the evening on Friday, then decreasing after midnight as moisture decreases while the front moves southward, with the greatest potential occurring along the coast. With adequate instability (MUCAPE around 1500 J/kg), and decent temperatures aloft (500mb temperatures around -11C), isolated lightning storms will be possible, and can`t rule out a strong storms or two into Saturday morning. Stronger storms will be capable of producing frequent cloud to ground lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy downpours. Sufficient moisture remains along with upper level support for isolated showers and lightning storms once again on Saturday afternoon, mainly across the southern half of ECFL. Mostly dry conditions on Sunday, with no mentionable rain chances forecast. West to northwest winds around 10 mph Friday night will increase to 10-12 mph by late morning Saturday before veering north to northeast by the afternoon. Winds will become light Saturday night before increasing to around 10 mph Sunday morning and veering northeast to east by Sunday afternoon. Hot conditions expected with well above normal temperatures forecast and plenty of sunshine. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s across the north, and low to mid 90s across the south on Saturday and Sunday. Overnight lows will be be in the upper 60s to low 70s on Friday night, low to mid 60s on Saturday night, and mid 60s to low 70s on Sunday night. Monday-Wednesday... Zonal flow aloft will continue on Monday, then a mid-level low/shortwave will push through the Southeast US mid-week. At the surface, high pressure along the southeast US coast will shift eastward and out into the Atlantic on Monday and continue moving eastward through midweek. Rain chances return to the forecast once again into mid week as the high moves into the western Atlantic, and the southerly to southwesterly flow along the western flank lifts the stalled frontal boundary and associated moisture back north across central Florida. Showers are forecast each afternoon, with PoP 40-60 percent. Depending on how far south the mid-level shortwaves and impulses of energy make it, we could potentially see higher coverage of lightning storms than we`ve had in quite a while towards mid-week. Forecast is now suggesting we`ll stay warmer through the period than previously advertised, with U80-L90s every day, with mid 90s possible across the interior on Wednesday and Thursday. Overnight lows in the U60-L70s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 403 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 VFR conditions are forecast to become MVFR with low stratus forecast to develop overnight after 07Z across KLEE, KSFB, KISM, KLEE, and KMCO. South to southwest winds inland and southeast winds near the coast at 10-15kts with gusts to 22kts are forecast to weaken overnight before increasing into Friday afternoon from the southwest at 12-15kts with gusts to 18-24kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 431 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 Currently-Friday... High pressure remains over the local Atlantic. Poor boating conditions are expected with south to southeast winds at 15-20kts with gusts up to 20-30kts forecast to back south- southwest into Friday afternoon with gusts up to 20-25kts. Seas are forecast to build to 2-4ft. Isolated to scattered showers and isolated lighting storms are forecast to develop Friday afternoon and evening, mainly over areas north of the Treasure Coast which will be capable of wind gusts up to 40-60mph, small hail, and cloud to water lighting strikes. Additionally, a waterspout cannot be ruled out. Friday night-Monday... High pressure across the local area will continue to retreat seaward Friday night with the aforementioned cold front progged to reach the local Atlantic waters late Friday, with isolated to scattered showers and lighting storms possible along and ahead of the front, pushing through the overnight into Saturday morning, and departing to the south Saturday afternoon where it will stall through the rest of the weekend as high pressure fills in behind. Wind continuously changing through most of the period as gradient winds veer NW-WNW Saturday behind the front, N-NE on Sunday, and SE on Monday. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to develop each afternoon, veering the winds onshore behind the sea breeze. Winds generally 10-15 KT from the early morning through the afternoon, except Friday evenings when wind surges cause speeds to increase to 15-20 KT through most of the overnight. Small craft should exercise caution during these times. Winds generally 5-10 KT after the front passes. Isolated to scattered showers and isolated lightning storms possible across the Atlantic waters through the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 431 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 Today-Sunday (modified previous discussion)... Near red flag conditions are forecast Friday. South to southwest winds inland and southeast near the coast at 10-15mph with gusts up to 25-30mph are forecast into this evening. As a cold front approaches from the north, breezy southwest winds from 12-20 MPH are forecast on Friday with gusts up to 30 mph. Combined with well-above-normal temperatures and RH readings in the mid/high 30s (%) (especially south of Orlando), extremely fire-sensitive to critical fire weather conditions are possible Friday afternoon with the highest concern across Okeechobee & Osceola, as well as areas west of I-95 in St Lucie, Indian River, and Brevard Co`s. This also happens to be co- located with some of our driest locales. Behind the front on Saturday, even drier air punches down the peninsula as temperatures remain above normal for areas south of Orlando. The combination of WNW winds 12-15 MPH and low RH readings from 32-37% from Lake Co. down into the Kissimmee Basin may again yield near- critical to critical fire weather conditions Saturday afternoon. Deep mixing heights to 6-8 KFT will support excellent peak dispersion values Fri/Sat. By Sunday, winds lessen slightly to around 10 MPH. However, RH minima will once again fall to 30-40% over much of the interior. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 431 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 Record Highs for Friday. DAB 10-May 94 2008 LEE 10-May 96 2009 SFB 10-May 98 2009 MCO 10-May 98 1916 MLB 10-May 95 1978 VRB 10-May 95 1976 FPR 10-May 96 2008 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 73 93 70 84 / 10 40 40 10 MCO 74 94 73 91 / 10 10 30 10 MLB 73 94 72 89 / 0 10 20 10 VRB 70 96 70 91 / 0 10 20 20 LEE 75 91 73 89 / 10 30 40 10 SFB 74 94 72 90 / 10 20 30 10 ORL 75 93 73 91 / 10 20 30 10 FPR 69 96 70 91 / 0 10 20 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Fehling LONG TERM...Watson AVIATION...Fehling