Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 202054

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
654 AM ChST Sat Apr 21 2018

.Marianas Synopsis...
Mostly cloudy skies with isolated showers and moderate to fresh trade
winds prevail across the Marianas this morning. A weak disturbance is
seen on satellite just east of the Marianas. Latest buoy observations
show seas between 5 and 7 feet.


A weak disturbance just east of the Marianas is bringing a few showers
along with mostly cloudy skies to the islands. skies and shower
activity should begin to clear out this afternoon with partly cloudy
skies expected by this evening. For the next week, only patchy showers
and variable cloudiness with no organized system affecting the


Seas will remain between 6 and 8 feet today, then subside slowly
tonight. The east swell will continue to produce surf of 7 to 10 feet
today, then slowly decrease over night. The high risk of rip currents
is expected to fall to moderate by Sunday morning.


.Eastern Micronesia and Chuuk...
Much drier trade winds will prolong fair weather near Chuuk thru
Sunday night, and Pohnpei thru this evening. Farther east, a broad
tropical disturbance and its associated trough are going to produce
locally heavy showers near Kosrae thru Monday. Converging southeast
to south winds east of the trough axis will also trigger periodic
showers near Majuro until this evening. As these features slowly pull
westward, wet weather will eventually reach Pohnpei by Sunday
afternoon and Chuuk by Monday. On the other hand, moderate easterly
trade winds will bring back a relatively drier regime to Majuro on
Sunday and Kosrae toward midweek.

Residual trade-wind swell and wind waves have subsided enough to
allow surf on Kosrae to fall below hazardous levels this morning.


.Western Micronesia...
Gentle winds with abundant sunshine will lead to island heating
induced thunderstorms near Koror this afternoon. A trough of low
pressure will also trigger a few showers near Yap today and then
Koror tonight and Sunday. Another similar feature currently over the
Mariana Islands could also bring passing showers near Yap Sunday
night and Monday. By the time it reaches Koror near midweek, the
near-equatorial trough near 3N might shift northward closer to Koror.
If so, interaction between these two features will result in a
wetter pattern for Koror during the second half of next week.


GU...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GUZ001>004.

Marianas Waters...None.


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