Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 262050

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Valid 281200Z - 041200Z

Upper ridging centered along the High Plains at the beginning of the
period (12Z D3/Saturday) will shift eastward across the Plains and
into the MS Valley throughout the weekend as the overall pattern
becomes more progressive. Upper trough entering the Pacific
Northwest on D3/Saturday will slowly move eastward/southeastward,
reaching the Great Basin on by D5/Monday. A series of shortwave
troughs are expected to move through the base of this upper trough
during the first half of next week. Persistent lee troughing coupled
with enhanced mid-level flow accompanying the shortwave troughs will
lead to several days of fire weather conditions across portions of
the Southwest and southern High Plains.

...D4/Sunday - D8/Thursday: Southwest and southern High Plains...
Gusty winds will begin overlapping dry conditions across the region
on D4/Monday, continuing until at least D7/Wednesday with some
possibility for extension into D8/Thursday. Current guidance
suggests the highest likelihood of critical fire weather conditions
exists on D5/Monday where sustained winds over 30 mph could overlap
single-digit RH values, resulting in high-end fire weather
conditions. Less model consensus exists on D4/Sunday and D6/Tuesday,
limiting overall forecast confidence on these days. However, given
the favorable pattern, critical conditions will likely occur on
these days and 70%/critical delineations may be needed in subsequent
forecasts once confidence in the location of occurrence increases.

..Mosier.. 04/26/2018

...Please see for graphic product...

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