Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 241755

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z


No major changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. The
critical area has been expanded slightly eastward across the Texas
High Plains, owing to favorably enhanced 850-700mb southwesterly
flow, its impact on deep mixing/drying over the region, and a
related uptick in potential for critical conditions. Otherwise, see
below for more details.

..Picca.. 03/24/2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018/

Large-scale upper troughing over the western states will move only
slowly eastward on Day 2/Sunday. Much of the Southwest and
southern/central Plains will remain beneath enhanced southwesterly
mid-level winds. Forcing for ascent preceding the upper trough will
encourage lee cyclone development across the central High Plains by
Sunday afternoon, with a dryline extending southward from this low
across the southern High Plains.

...Portions of the Southwest into the Southern/Central High
Strong/gusty southwesterly winds of 20-30 mph will likely develop
once again on Day 2/Sunday from parts of the Southwest into the
southern/central High Plains. A broad area of critical fire weather
conditions is forecast across this region where these strong winds
should overlap RH values of 7-15% and dry to very dry fuels.
High-end critical conditions may occur from northeastern NM into
parts of the TX/OK Panhandles, where sustained winds could approach
30 mph in combination with RH values below 10%. Some model
disagreement remains concerning the location of the dryline Sunday
afternoon, which will impact the eastward extent of possible
elevated/critical conditions for the central/southern High Plains.
For now, have made some eastward expansions to these areas, but
additional adjustments eastward may be needed if current model
trends continue.

...Please see for graphic product...

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