Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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419 FXUS61 KBGM 111824 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 224 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Frontal system pushes into the region this evening kicking off more rain showers. Showers are expected to continue through Sunday with a brief break Sunday night, before the next frontal system approaches Monday morning. An active pattern will continue this week with unsettled weather through at least mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 220 PM Update: Unsettled weather will continue through most of the period with just brief high pressure Sunday night into Monday morning. Weak surface low pressure and upper level shortwave trough will push across the Great Lakes this afternoon and evening, kicking off more widespread showers tonight. Out ahead of this system, we are seeing a few diurnal rain showers popping up across central NY. The diurnal heating, aided with the cool air aloft, could produce an isolated rumble of thunder. The low will fill and become vertically stacked overnight into Sunday as it moves over Central NY. This will keep shower chance up through the day tomorrow, especially with diurnal heating during the afternoon hours. This low moves east of the area by Sunday evening which will allow for showers to gradually taper off and should see some clearing in the clouds overnight into early Monday morning. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... 410 AM Update This period starts off briefly quiet Sunday night, with dry weather and partly cloudy skies. It will be seasonably cool, with lows in the upper 30s to mid-40s in most locations. Outside chance for some patchy frost in the colder valleys of the Catskills, but not enough confidence to include in the forecast grids at this time. It then becomes somewhat more active on Monday, as a surface front slides into central NY from Ontario. At the same some, mid and upper level ridging will be building over the Mid-Atlantic. This will cause the surface front to stall, likely somewhere over Central NY...but the exact location/position is unknown. Along this front scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will develop. At this time, further south toward the Wyoming Valley looks to stay dry, under partly sunny skies. High temperatures will range from the mid- 60s to low 70s Monday afternoon. The stalled front remains along the northern periphery of the Mid-Atlantic ridge Monday night. This will keep showers in the showers in the forecast, especially from the Twin Tiers north into Central NY. Milder with lows in the upper 40s to 50s Monday night. The weather then becomes much wetter/more active Tuesday into Tuesday night. Moisture advection increases on a southwesterly flow into the region. This is in response to a developing low pressure system over the Ohio Valley that will move slowly east-northeast Tuesday night. Exact details remain uncertain, but it could start off somewhat dry earlier on Tuesday over NE PA and the Southern Tier before periods of rain and possible embedded thunderstorms move in from the west along the occluded frontal boundary. Rain overspreads the region Tuesday afternoon and continues Tuesday night. The latest trends are for a stronger, slower moving low pressure system with higher rain amounts for our area...but exact totals are unclear. Seasonable with highs 65 to 75 and lows in the 50s areawide. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 410 AM Update Main notable trend for this forecast update was to slow down the upper level low, which brings higher chances for more showers and isolated thunderstorms all day Wednesday and perhaps even into Wednesday night now. The 00z GFS showed this trend, along with the 00z CMC and the 00z ECMWF was now the slowest, with the low centered over south- central PA early Wednesday evening. The 00z ECS also showed plenty of precipitation lingering over the forecast area all day Wednesday. With this in mind, started to trend PoPs higher than what the 01z NBM was showing... but in collaboration with neighboring offices decided to still cap PoPs below likely thresholds on Wednesday. If this latest trend continues in the guidance, PoPs would continue to rise on Wednesday and into Wednesday night. Most of the guidance still dries us out for Thursday, with the 00z ECMWF being an outlier in keeping the upper level low close enough for showers over the eastern half of the CWA. Went back to the 01z NBM for the official forecast Thursday, which kept it dry and mostly sunny with mild temperatures in the 70s. There remains uncertainty and spread in the guidance for Friday; especially in regards to how fast the next weather system will push into the area from the Ohio Valley. For now, stayed close to the NBM, which gives increasing shower chances in the afternoon. Temperatures stay steady, with highs in the low to mid-70s and lows in the upper 40s to mid-50s each night. The next trough and weather system will be over the eastern US heading into the start of next weekend. This kept more shower chances in the forecast, with temperatures holding at seasonable levels. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Mostly VFR conditions are expected this afternoon, however another frontal system moves in this evening from the west. This will bring IFR to MVFR restrictions through the overnight hours. There will be some improvement tomorrow morning, but MVFR ceilings will likely continue into Sunday afternoon. Outlook... Sunday afternoon through Thursday...Occasional rain showers may bring intermittent restrictions as multiple disturbances pass through the region. Some periods of mainly VFR conditions possible in between disturbances, but timing of this is uncertain. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJG/MPK NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...MJM LONG TERM...MJM AVIATION...MPK