210
FXUS61 KBGM 120529
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
129 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Frontal system pushes into the region overnight with more rain
showers. Isolated to scattered showers are expected to continue
on Sunday with a brief break Sunday night, before the next
frontal system approaches Monday morning. An active pattern will
continue this week with unsettled weather through at least mid
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
100 AM Update:

Only minor adjustments to PoPs and QPF based on the latest radar
trends, HRRR and 3km NAM. Overall, forecast remains on track,
with no significant changes.

Previous Discussion Below

Continued minor adjustments with the shower coverage through the
overnight based on latest radar trends. Increased QPF slightly
in the Southern Tier of NY into the Finger Lakes as well with
the late evening update.

Sped up the timing heading into the evening hours with the
arrival of the next round of more widespread showers. Previous
discussion below.

220 PM Update:

Unsettled weather will continue through most of the period with
just brief high pressure Sunday night into Monday morning.

Weak surface low pressure and upper level shortwave trough will
push across the Great Lakes this afternoon and evening, kicking
off more widespread showers tonight. Out ahead of this system,
we are seeing a few diurnal rain showers popping up across
central NY. The diurnal heating, aided with the cool air aloft,
could produce an isolated rumble of thunder.

The low will fill and become vertically stacked overnight into
Sunday as it moves over Central NY. This will keep shower chance
up through the day tomorrow, especially with diurnal heating
during the afternoon hours. This low moves east of the area by
Sunday evening which will allow for showers to gradually taper
off and should see some clearing in the clouds overnight into
early Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
330PM Update

Upper level low moves east of our region Monday morning with a
brief ridge attempting to build in. Mostly sunny skies are
expected early in the day with clouds beginning to increase in
the afternoon as a front system approaches. This kicks off more
rain showers and possible thunderstorms mainly focusing over NY
with only slight chance Pops over northeast PA. Expecting light
QPF with this system with amounts up to a few tenths of an
inch. Temperatures Monday remain relatively cool with highs
ranging in the mid to upper 60s across the region. Rain showers
are expected to continue overnight with lows in the upper 40s to
mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
330PM Update

A surface low over the great lakes approaches our region on Tuesday
with a slow moving cold front keeping the threat of rain and
isolated thunderstorms in place. Meanwhile an upper level low over
the midwest begins to move eastwards Wednesday bringing
additional moisture advection into the region. This allows
showers and thunderstorms to persist through Wednesday as well.
Model guidance begins to diverge from Wednesday night through
the remaining period. GFS shows a faster resolution with the
upper low weakening into a trough and exiting by Thursday
morning... resulting in drier conditions. EURO shows the upper
low lingering through Thursday evening allowing rain showers to
continue into Thursday as well. Went with NBM Pops to account
for timing differences this far out. Temperatures during this
period will range in the mid 60s to mid 70s during the day with
lows falling into the mid 40s to mid 50s overnight.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

130 AM Update

Conditions will transition to MVFR after 06-08z as a frontal
system moves in overnight from the west with light rain.

Restrictions will generally hold steady around MVFR/Fuel Alt
through the rest of the overnight and Sunday morning hours but
could touch IFR at ITH and BGM at times with some low clouds
and patchy fog around.

There will be improvement tomorrow afternoon after 16-19Z, with
MVFR ceilings going to VFR at ITH, SYR, ELM and RME by 18-20z.
BGM and AVP are expected to remain MVFR through about 13/00z,
but confidence is rather low. There could be enough afternoon
mixing to scatter out the conditions to VFR at times late in the
day. Patchy low clouds and perhaps some fog returns by late
Sunday evening, but the clouds certainly look more scattered.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Wednesday...Occasional rain showers may
bring intermittent restrictions as multiple disturbances pass
through the region. Some periods of mainly VFR conditions
possible in between disturbances, but timing of this is uncertain.

Thursday...Becoming VFR as a ridge of high pressure moves
overhead.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK/MJM/MWG
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...BJT/MJM