274
FXUS61 KBTV 021047
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
647 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered to numerous showers, with a few possible thunderstorms,
will continue through the day today over northern areas. High
pressure will return for Friday and bring drier weather and some
breaks in the sun. Rain showers enter northern New York on Saturday
and the entire region for Sunday. Drier weather looks to start next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 640 AM EDT Thursday... Showers and thunderstorms have
exited New York and are now confined to northern Vermont. They
will continue to move to the east and should leave the region
in the next few hours. However, showers will reignite later this
morning as cooling air aloft and diurnal heating provide
instability. Clouds have cleared out over much of northern New
York and the clearing should at least reach parts of western
Vermont. However, it will be short lived as clouds will return
later this morning. Previous Discussion Follows...

Previous Discussion...A warm front is passing through the North
Country tonight and it is bringing some scattered showers and
thunderstorms from an area of elevated instability. These storms
will continue for much of the night before dissipating by mid-
morning as the elevated instability diminishes. Some showers
will then develop during the day across northern areas as a
shortwave trough builds into the region and an associated cold
pool steepens lapse rates. Diurnal heating will help create some
surface based instability, particularly over Northeast Vermont,
and there is the possibility that it is strong enough for a
couple thunderstorms to develop. Small hail and graupel cannot
be ruled out in these storms due to the cold air aloft. There is
a strong QPF gradient across the region with southern areas
only expected to see a few hundreths of an inch of rain while
the Northeast Kingdom should see up to around a half-inch.
Across the showery northern areas, temperatures will only reach
the lower 60s. However, temperatures will reach the upper 60s
and low 70s across southern Vermont where it will be drier and
where some breaks in the clouds are possible.

The shortwave passes to the east overnight and the shower chances
quickly end as lapse rates lower and diurnal heating ends. Abundant
low-level moisture and light winds could cause fog formation
overnight, particularly if some breaks form in the clouds.
Temperatures will fall into the 40s across the region. An upper
level ridge builds into the region on Friday and it will bring drier
and warmer weather. 925 mb temperatures look to rise to between 9-14
degrees but easterly flow will keep the warmest temperatures, up to
20 celsius, just to the southwest over Central New York. Highs
should therefore range in the upper 60s and low 70s. Temperatures
will depend a bit on how quickly the low clouds from Thursday`s
shortwave scour out and how quickly high clouds build in from the
west. It looks like there should at least be some filtered sunshine
during the day for most areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 408 AM EDT Thursday...Longwave ridge axis shifts eastward
Friday night with southerly flow increasing. Expect increasing cloud
cover and mild overnight temperatures in the mid/upper 40s and low
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 408 AM EDT Thursday...The pattern evolution will support deeper
moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico Saturday as upper level
ridge axis amplifies downstream of the North Country. A weak trough
moving out of the lower mid west will help pull Gulf moisture
northward while a stronger trough with upper level support swings
through the Great Lakes region. These features will likely begin to
phase supporting PWATs in excess of 1" late Saturday into Sunday as
the surface trough moves through the region. Expect shower chances
to begin increasing Saturday with rain/rain showers Saturday night
and Sunday. While conditions will be wet, best forcing will likely
be displaced northward into Canada as the low rides up the ridge, so
excessive rainfall/flooding is not anticipated.

Active pattern continues with ridging returning Monday into Tuesday.
A lack of cold air replacement resulting from the nature of the
continental airmass from lower/central US Plains will keep
temperatures running warmer that seasonal averages. Ensembles favor
a pattern that would support highs in the lower/mid 70s. We`ll be
keeping an eye on the mid-week system that may move into the North
Country on Wednesday. Warmer temperatures and a chance at decent
forcing could supply ingredients for more robust thunderstorms. It
will all depend on timing which is vague this far out. Should a
front approach during max heating Wednesday, a few stronger storms
would be possible. However, it`s just as likely at this point that
frontal passage could be offset outside of peak heating which would
limit convection. Ensembles keep a progressive pattern beyond
Wednesday supporting quick moving ridge/troughs.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...An area of scattered showers and thunderstorms
is moving west to east across the region. It should generally take
between 1-2 hours for the area to pass through a specific terminal.
They are currently over northern New York and should reach BTV and
PBG before 7Z and MPV and EFK around 7Z-8Z. These storms should be
out of the region by around 10Z and the thunderstorm threat should
be over for the rest of the day. However, there will be some
scattered showers continuing for much of the day over the northern
terminals. Ceilings will drop pretty quickly tonight and everywhere
should reach MVFR before daybreak. IFR ceilings are expected at MSS
and MPV later tonight and they cannot be ruled out at SLK either.
Ceilings will rise slowly during the day today and they should be
above IFR levels at all terminals by mid-morning. Winds will be
relatively light during this period, generally shifting from
southeasterly to southwesterly. LLWS will be a concern at every
terminal tonight before becoming weaker during the day today as a
low-level jet exits the region.

Outlook...

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR/MVFR conditions possible. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Myskowski