National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS62 KCAE 240633
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
233 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will approach from the northwest this morning and
cross the forecast area late this afternoon into tonight with a
slight chance of light showers. Fair and slightly cooler
Thursday. Weak surface high pressure will generally remain over
or near our vicinity Friday through Monday. Fair weather
generally expected with a gradual warming trend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Through daybreak skies will remain mostly clear with some cirrus
drifting across the region and south-southwesterly winds around
5 mph. With the wind keeping the atmosphere a bit more mixed
than last night temperatures will be several degrees warmer with
overnight lows generally in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Situation will change today as the southwesterly winds continue
to push slightly more moisture into the area as a weak front
approaches from the northwest. The front will move into the
western Midlands during the mid afternoon then push through the
eastern Midlands and southern CSRA around midnight. Moisture and
dynamics with this front are limited and 850 mb flow will be
westerly which will also limit showers and rainfall amounts.
Lapse rates between 850 and 500 mb will struggle to reach
6.0 C/Km and CAPE generally less than 250 J/Kg do not expect any
thunder just scattered showers mainly in the northern and central
Midlands. Rainfall amounts will also be limited with locations
which get the showers receiving less than one tenth of an inch
and likely only a couple hundredths. With the southerly flow
pushing some warmer air into the area expect high temperatures
in the upper 70s to around 80. The front will move offshore
during the early morning hours with skies beginning to clear
behind the front and winds turning northerly starting to bring a
bit cooler and drier air to the area. This will produce
overnight lows ranging from the around 50 in the western
Midlands to the mid 50s in the eastern Midlands and CSRA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
On Thursday, the weather looks nice again with highs in the
upper 70s and mostly sunny skies. Lows overnight should be in
the 50s as high pressure settles in and southeasterly flow helps
moisten us up.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low-level high pressure is forecast to be the dominant feature
in this period. The center of this is likely to our east and
northeast through at least Monday, setting us up for
southeasterly onshore flow in the 1000-850 hPa layer. This is
typically a favorable setup for low clouds in the mornings, so
expect at least a day of that, but otherwise, mostly fair
conditions are likely through the period. Mid and upper level
heights are forecast to be near the 90th percentile (per NAEFS),
so a slow moderation in temps is likely through the weekend.
Highs will likely be in the low 80s Saturday but should be in
the mid to upper 80s by the end of this period. There is some
indication that the ridging will finally break down by this
time next week, but forecaster confidence is low in this at this
point.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

Dry air remains in place across the area as increasing southerly
flow has begun gradually pushing moisture into the region. With
high pressure now off the coast a weak front will move into the
area from the northwest this afternoon and move offshore
tonight. The highest potential for any showers would be at
CAE/CUB between 21z and 25/03z however have remained without
mention as moisture with this front is limited. Winds will be
south-southwesterly at 5 knots or less through mid morning then
become westerly at 10-12 knots with gusts up to 18 knots
through fropa then turn northerly and decrease to around 5
knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation
expected through Sunday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$