National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS62 KCHS 241934
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
334 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak trough will drop into the region tonight into Thursday.
High pressure builds back into the region late week through the
early part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Upper level trough and associated surface low is swinging
through New England this afternoon with a trailing boundary/
surface trough arcing down into the mid-Atlantic and Appalachia
and further into northern Georgia. Modest moisture ribbon is
stretched out ahead of the trough with PWAT values around one
inch and a band of cloud cover with bases mainly above 5K feet.
There is some light precip moving through parts of North
Carolina and spotty radar returns in northern Georgia. But
otherwise, relatively benign conditions exist across the
region.

Tonight: Surface trough/wind shift line will be sliding down
through the region late this evening through early Thursday
morning. As noted in previous discussions, model guidance and
forecast soundings remain very unimpressive from a precip
potential standpoint, showing a layer of cloud cover (2-3K feet
thick) passing through the region superimposed along a corridor
of weak lower level QG-forcing for ascent, but fairly dry layers
above and below. Thus, it`s difficult to imagine that we will
get much in the way of measurable precip. That said, high-
resolution guidance sources continue to show spotty showers/
sprinkles along the trough dipping into the northern part of the
forecast area before dissipating. So, we have opted to retain
low end (isolated) precip chances largely in the 03Z to 09Z
timeframe and for just across the far northern part of the
forecast area.

Lows Thursday morning will range from the mid-upper 50s inland
to the lower-mid 60s at the beaches and Downtown Charleston.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak front/trough will push offshore as a wedge of high pressure
builds south Thursday. Aloft, a large omega block will begin to set
up with amplifying troughs over the Western Atlantic and Western
U.S. A ridge axis over the Central U.S will gradually shift toward
the Eastern Seaboard, and settle in place through at least the first
half of the weekend. Overall, quiet weather is expected with little
to no forcing; however models generate a few light showers at times
with onshore flow. Slight chance PoPs are in place for Friday
afternoon across inland southeast Georgia where there has been some
persistence, but otherwise the chance for measurable rainfall was
low enough to preclude mention in the forecast.

High temperatures remain within a few degrees of normal, generally
in the upper 70s to lower 80s each day. Lows both nights range from
the mid/upper 50s inland to the mid 60s along the immediate
coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The pattern remains largely unchanged through the early week with
the omega block and deep high pressure in place. This favors
increasing temperatures and virtually zero rain chances. The upper
ridge axis will finally begin to shift offshore Tuesday as a
weakening trough and accompanying weak cold front moves into the
eastern U.S. It should be another dry day across much of the area,
however a few showers could impact inland areas during the latter
half of the day. Temperatures will start the period in the upper
70s/low 80s and will rise to the upper 80s/near 90F by the middle of
the next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
24/18z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: Solid VFR conditions will prevail through the
period.

There is a touch of smoke across the region that will cycle
through today along with a few afternoon clouds. Weak southward
moving surface trough will bring a band of thicker VFR cloud
cover down into the region tonight. Some very spotty showers or
sprinkles are possible along the trough, mainly across parts of
southeast South Carolina. We continue to carry VCSH for both
KCHS and KJZI later this evening to highlight this. No impacts
are expected.

Winds veer into the north behind the trough for Thursday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds will diminish to near 10 kt overnight as a
surface trough slips south into the local marine areas. A few
showers could impact mainly the South Santee-Edisto Beach
nearshore leg and Charleston Harbor during the overnight hours,
although the overall precip potential is very low. Seas will
average 2-3 ft in the nearshore waters out to 20 NM and the 3-4
ft over the Georgia offshore leg out 20-60 NM.

Thursday through Monday: Winds will shift ENE Thursday and then
persist through late week as high pressure builds from the north.
Brief surge will bring winds to the 15-20 kt range Friday
afternoon/evening. Seas in turn will build to 2-4 ft across the
nearshore waters out to 20 nm and 5-6 feet across the outer Georgia
waters. A Small Craft Advisory could be needed for that particular
marine zone for a brief period overnight Friday. Winds veer more
southerly early next week with no additional marine concerns.

Rip Currents: Lingering swell, onshore winds and lunar
influences will continue to support a moderate risk for rip
currents for all beaches through early evening.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KCLX radar is undergoing electrical maintenance and is
tentatively scheduled to return to service April 26th.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Adam
SHORT TERM...BRM
LONG TERM...BRM
AVIATION...Adam/BRM
MARINE...Adam/BRM