Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 170357

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1057 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

Upper level low currently centered around Sioux City will continue
to slowly drift to the south and east thru the evening and overnight
hours. This fairly wound up and robust low has resulted in a
persistent band of rain with embedded thunderstorms along the I-90
corridor from Sioux Falls eastward through much of the day. This
has largely broken up as it looses its overall dynamics. With
this said, additional more diurnally driven hit or miss showers
and thunderstorms will remain possible thru early evening with a
minimally/non capped environment.

By mid to late evening, precipitation chances should quickly drop
off with clearing skies from northwest to southeast. These clear
skies, light winds and a moist boundary layer will allow for the
potential for fog development early Friday morning, although its
extent is somewhat uncertain. Overnight lows are expected to run
in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Weak ridging builds in for Friday and will lead to dry conditions
across the region. This, combined with surface high pressure, will
lead to more sunshine mixed in with afternoon cumulus clouds and
afternoon high temperatures rebounding into the 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

Dry conditions will persist into Saturday before our attention will
turn to our next disturbance moving out of the Northern Rockies.
This shortwave will track east through the Central and Northern
Plains by Sunday and Monday resulting in widespread and showers and
thunderstorms. At this time, overall shear and instability profiles
point to the severe risk being rather low although some locations
may once again pick up some healthy rainfall amounts. An overall
drier trend is expected for the middle of next week as the region
sits in a more northerly upper level flow pattern on the backside of
the previously mentioned low.

Temperatures Saturday will be fairly similar to Friday`s readings,
or mostly 80s for highs, before falling back into the 70s for early
next week. Climatological normal high temperatures for this time of
year are generally in the low to mid 80s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1055 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

Mainly VFR conditions are expected. With light winds and low level
moisture in place, patchy fog will again be possible late tonight
through around daybreak, mainly in low lying areas. Confidence in
the extent of fog is still low, but think there is enough of a
possibility to keep in all three TAF sites.




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