Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 170332

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1032 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

Breezy post frontal northwest winds this afternoon will decrease
this evening as surface high pressure expands over the high Plains
and the pressure gradient relaxes over the northern Plains. Winds
will drop to less than 10 mph late this evening and gradually shift
more westerly across south central SD. SKies will remain mostly
clear to partly cloudy overnight, with models suggesting a scattered
band of stratus diving into northeast and east central SD late
tonight, then expanding across the rest of southeast SD, into
southwest MN and northwest Iowa by midday Wednesday.

Wednesday will continue along the recent warming trend with upper
level ridging rebuilding over the central and northern Plains.
Surface high pressure will also drift through the central Plains,
keeping winds light from the west to northwest. While there will be
some passing clouds, we should still see plenty of sunshine to
bolster highs from near 50 in our far eastern counties, to lower 60s
in south central.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

Quiet weather continues into the remainder of the 7 day forecast,
with temperatures near or a little below normal.

Upper level ridge shifts further east while a trough slowly advances
across the Great Basin and northern Rockies region. This will lead
into mild southwest flow aloft across the area on Thursday, along
with the warmest temperatures expected in the forecast period. South
to southwest surface winds will be on the increase, becoming breezy
on Thursday. Did adjust afternoon wind speeds slightly higher than
the blended guidance. Once again nudged highs to warmer side of
guidance using the ADJMEX to reach highs in the 60s.

Trough finally slides through the northern Plains Thursday night
into Friday. While this system looks to be largely dry as it passes,
mid level moisture will be on the increase, especially along and
east of I-29. While forcing and moisture overall remain fairly
meager, we could squeak out a few isolated should east of I-29
Thursday night in our far eastern counties.

Cold front dives through the forecast area Friday morning through
midday, with windy conditions developing behind the front. Likewise
to Thursday, adjusted the blended winds slightly higher than
guidance. Frontal passage is expected to be dry, while the well
mixed environment will bring another mild day with highs right
around seasonal normals in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Pattern then transitions back into a northwest flow aloft regime
this weekend into Monday. Behind the cold front, slightly cooler
temperatures return to the region for Saturday, with highs in the
upper 40s to mid 50s. Not a great deal of improvement expected
Sunday and Monday with readings slightly below normal, but dry
weather continues.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

Mid-level clouds will continue to drift southeast through
Wednesday morning. Surface winds will turn light and variable for
much of the day, before turning more southerly in the evening.




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