283
FXUS63 KFSD 160426
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1026 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near-record to record temperatures persist through Tuesday.
  Average highs will be +25 to +35 degrees above average.

- Additional chances for high to very high fire danger are
  expected by Tuesday and Wednesday as periodic breeziness
  returns. However, increasing rain chances could dampen the
  potential.

- Rain and some snow chances (30-50%) return Tuesday night into
  Wednesday morning. The bulk of the precipitation will stay
  north and east of the area.

- A second round of light snow is possible (30-50%) for
  Thursday. As of now, there is a 20-60% chance for snowfall
  amounts to exceed an inch. Details can still change over the
  coming days but minor impacts to travel are possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 956 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

The quieter conditions continue this evening as high-level cirrus
streams into the area. Heading into Monday, expect much of the same
as lingering warm air advection (WAA) aloft leads to another warm
day with highs mainly in the upper 50s to low 60s. With highs
continuing to hover 20-30 degrees above normal, we`ll have to
monitor temperatures into the afternoon as we could once again set a
few new record highs (Check the climate section below for details).
Otherwise, the main focus will continue to be on Tuesday as our next
wave lifts through the area. Since the NBM continues to broad brush
POPs through Wednesday, decided to scale back any categorical
(chance and likely) mention towards the highway-14 corridor and
northwards mainly due to the presence of drier air according to
soundings.

However, can`t completely rule out a few patchy areas of drizzle
and/or virga by Tuesday morning. Nonetheless, wouldn`t be surprised
if we`ll need to continue to manually shape POPs moving forward
given how poorly the NBM is handling this system. Shift gears here,
with a tightening SPG and unseasonably warm temperatures; high to
very high fire danger will continue into Tuesday (and potentially
Wednesday). While some of my western neighbors have already pulled
the trigger on a Fire Weather Watch for Tuesday afternoon, decided
to hold off for our area given the increased cloud cover and
marginal RH values (40%-60%) for most areas. Nonetheless, if areas
along the Missouri River Valley can manage to get clear by late
morning; that would be the area to watch for another fire weather
headline.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 156 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Temperatures have warmed to the 50s and 60s this afternoon while
humidity values have fallen to 20-30%. Winds remain somewhat breezy
west of the James River with gusts up to 20-30 mph. The warm and
breezy conditions are resulting in critical fire danger conditions
being reached. More details can be found in the fire weather
discussion below. These conditions will continue through 6 pm before
the sun begins to set, cooling temperatures and resulting in
weakening winds. Low temperatures overnight will still be warm, only
falling to the 20s, 30s, and maybe only down to about 40F. There
could also be some patchy fog that develops across parts of
northwest Iowa.

Monday will be another quiet and warm day, though not as warm as
Sunday as 850 mb temperatures will only warm to about +5C to +10C.
Mixing these temperatures to the surface will result in high
temperatures up to the 50s and 60s. Winds will be very light so no
fire danger is expected. Low temperatures will fall to 30s and 40s
overnight.

A stronger upper level low will eject into the Northern Plains on
Tuesday. Warm air advection (WAA) will strengthen aloft, warming 850
mb temperatures to +6C to +12C. While mixing these temperatures to
the surface would result in very warm temperatures but there could
be low level stratus that prevents the full extent of mixing from
being realized. Latest LREF shows shows about a 50% chance for
locations along and north of a Chamberlain, South Dakota to Sioux
Falls, South Dakota, to Storm Lake, Iowa line seeing >50% cloud
cover. This also aligns well with the approximate location of the
warm front though the front`s location can still meander over the
next day or two. The cloud cover and location of the front will
affect how warm temperatures get during the afternoon hours. For
now, still think that temperatures will warm to the upper 50s to low
60s along and north of the previously mentioned line. Temperatures
look to further warm to the to the mid to upper 60s and 70s south of
the line, warmest along the Missouri River Valley. The warm
temperatures along with breezy winds could result in another day of
elevated fire danger across the area. There could be some rain
showers during the afternoon timeframe but the greatest chance (30-
50%) for rain will come Tuesday evening and night. However, the
ensembles remain in agreement in the highest probabilities for
precipitation remaining north and east of the forecast area. Low
temperatures will only fall to the 30s overnight.

And chance for rain will be coming to an end Wednesday morning,
leaving mostly dry conditions for the rest of the day. A few
snowflakes could mix in with the retreating precipitation. Rainfall
amounts look to be light from a few hundredths to up to a tenth or
two and be focused north of I-90. A cold front will push through the
area during the morning hours on Wednesday, the post frontal airmass
will bring high temperatures down to the 40s and 50s but winds will
be strengthening through the day. The NBM supports this as it shows
a widespread 40-70% chance for wind gusts to exceed 40 mph Wednesday
afternoon. Despite the cooler, but above average, temperatures,
humidity values look to fall to near critical levels. The lower
humidity and gusty winds look to continue elevated fire danger
chances. This time, locations south of I-90 are most likely to see
elevated fire danger conditions.

The break in precipitation will be short lived as another upper
level wave ejects into the Northern and Central Plains on Thursday.
There remains large uncertainty in the precipitation potential with
this wave as deterministic guidance varies in its evolution. Most of
the guidance shows an open wave quickly pushing through the region
while the operational Euro shows the low closing off. The ensembles
generally show a more progressive open wave with only the Euro
ensemble showing a close low. The most favored ensemble cluster
shows a 40-60% chance for precipitation amounts to exceed a tenth of
an inch. Although high temperatures may warm up to about 40F in some
spots, the precipitation type looks to be mainly snow as supported
by the ensembles. Chances for snow will persist through Thursday
night before ending Friday morning. With remaining breezy winds in
place, patchy blowing snow is possible which could affect travel.
The ensembles show a 20-60% chance for snowfall amounts to exceed an
inch. The Euro ensemble shows the highest probabilities of the
ensembles.

The end of the week will see a return to generally quiet conditions
as broad troughing lingers over the Northern Plains. High
temperatures will look to be near seasonable in the 20s and 30s with
lows falling to the single digits and teens.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 956 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

VFR conditions will persist this TAF period. Besides some upper-
level cirrus, a nocturnal LLJ will continue to lead to a few
hours of LLWS mainly across KFSD and KSUX. However, should see
this feature push out of our area by 10z. Otherwise, decreasing
winds will become more light and variable overnight to end the
TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 156 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Temperatures have warmed to the 50s and 60s so far today. With dew
points in in the 20s and 30s, humidity levels have fallen to near
critical to critical levels across the vast majority of the area.
Winds remain generally light but have seen gusts up to 20-30 mph so
far west of the James River. This is the same area where a Red Flag
Warning is in effect. The Warming remains in effect until 6 pm this
evening. Think the Warning remains valid as it currently but will
continue to monitor conditions for the rest of the afternoon hours.
Could see a small expansion to the north and east if winds increase
in this area.

Light winds on Monday will preclude any fire danger. However, winds
pick up out of the southeast on Tuesday. Gusts up to 20-35 mph will
accompany the southeast winds. At the same time, temperatures look
to be very warm with highs in the upper 50s, 60s, and 70s. Humidity
values look to fall to near critical levels, down to around 30% at
this time. While elevated fire danger is likely for Tuesday, stratus
and the locations of a warm front could result in cooler high
temperatures depending on how the variables turn out. Too early to
make any meaningful changes to the forecast but something to keep an
eye on going forward.

Elevated fire danger could persist through Wednesday as high
temperatures remain above average in the 40s and 50s.
West/northwesterly winds will become breezy with gusts potentially
gusting up to 40 mph. Humidity will fall to near critical levels
along the Missouri River Valley keeping high to very high fire
danger in place.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 315 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

The forecast through Tuesday will feature near record to record highs
and near record warm low temperatures:

Record high temperatures:

February 16: KFSD: 64/1981 KSUX: 66/1981 KHON: 62/2017 KMHE:63/2017
February 17: KFSD: 70/1981 KSUX: 71/1981 KHON: 67/1913 KMHE:70/1913

Record warm low temperatures:

February 16: KFSD: 35/1998 KSUX: 37/1998 KHON: 36/2011
February 17: KFSD: 33/1992 KSUX: 37/1930 KHON: 35/1981
February 18: KFSD: 38/1994 KSUX: 39/1971 KHON: 35/1994

Additionally climate perspectives indicate that the current forecast
through Monday the 16th would push the mean monthly temperature
departure at Sioux Falls (+15 degrees), Sioux City (+15 degrees),
and Huron (+18 degrees) as the warmest February on record through
that date.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...05
DISCUSSION...Meyers
AVIATION...05
FIRE WEATHER...Meyers
CLIMATE...Dux