Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 192356
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
556 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 443 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2020

The band of moderate to heavy snowfall will continue to shift south
late this afternoon with little to no snowfall expected in the Sioux
City area after about 5 pm. Cold arctic high pressure at the surface
will build in behind this band of snow and bring very cold lows to
many locations on Thursday morning. Suspect that most locations will
be 5 below to 15 below zero by Thursday morning. The good thing is
winds will be pretty light but in parts of southwest MN even winds
of 5 to 10 mph will likely drop the wind chill to 25 to 30 below
zero so will have a wind chill advisory out for late tonight into
mid morning Thursday.

High pressure will drift southeast on Thursday with southerly flow
developing behind. This will allow some less cold readings to build
into the area. Not exactly a mild day but highs should be 15 to 20
across southwest MN and 30 to 35 in south central SD. Skies should
be mostly clear.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 443 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2020

Thursday night into Friday southerly slow takes on a bit more of a
westerly component which will set up a mild day on Friday, the first
of a few, although Sunday and Monday now not looking quite as mild
as a system moving by to the south Sunday night into Monday night
enables colder air to once again sag southward. Still looking like
highs roughly 35 to 45 Friday into Sunday but some of the
potentially warmer readings near the Missouri River will be offset
by melting the new snow that has fallen.

Warmer flow continues into Saturday as a trough of low pressure
deepens across the Central Rockies. Lows should be 15 to 25 and
highs 35 to 45, likely a bit warmer in south central SD.

Saturday night into Sunday night low pressure ejects onto the
Central Plains and begins to drag down some cooler air from the
north. With this system being a little stronger than the previous
runs Sunday and Monday not looking quite as mild, but still
seasonal. With this stronger system some patchy light snow could
sneak up towards Sioux City Sunday night but the brunt of the
activity will be south of there.

A broad upper level trough will carve across the central US Tuesday
into Wednesday which will allow colder air to work southward. The
models are not overly agreeable during this time and pretty
different from yesterdays runs so confidence marginal on the outcome
of precipitation. we should see some snowfall Tuesday into Wednesday
as the models hint at a wave diving south on the backside of the
ejecting trough, so will see on the trends and consistency over the
next few days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 556 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2020

VFR conditions, along with variable winds at or below 10kt, are
expected through this forecast period.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Chill Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Thursday
     for SDZ039-040.

MN...Wind Chill Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Thursday
     for MNZ071-072-080-081-090-097.

IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JH


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