Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 171124
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
524 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

Snowy weather weather will continue area-wide today, with continued
light accumulations. Forcing for lift and snow production will wane
later this morning as vorticity advection becomes weaker over the
region. Nevertheless, even the marginal lift will be able to produce
light snow for most of the area throughout the day, given saturation
in the dendritic growth zone. Another 1 to 3 inches are likely from
daybreak today through late tonight. Winter Weather Advisories
remain in place, covering the the threat for additional light
accumulations and wintry travel through this evening and into the
overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 240 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

By sunrise Monday, accumulating snow is expected to taper off.
Flurries are possible at times during the day, as a thin stratus
deck is likely to remain in the dendritic growth zone. A strong
Canadian surface high pressure will lead to continued below normal
temperatures, although persistent cloud-cover will keep overnight
temperatures from falling much below zero.

Tuesday`s high temperatures will be in the teens as the next weather
system approaches from the southwest. A deep trough will move east
from the Rockies, putting much of the central and northern Plains
again in the path of accumulating snow. Tuesday evening into
Wednesday morning currently looks like the timeframe most likely to
bring snow. Several inches are possible, with the higher amounts in
northwest Iowa and areas southeast of the region. Confidence is
still low on details of the system`s track this far out, but 2 to
4 inches of new snow looks to be in the ballpark. Winds will
again be light with this snow-maker, so blowing snow is not
expected to be a big issue.

Thursday looks uneventful, as southwest flow and brief ridging
spread over the region. Friday into the weekend, active winter
weather looks to return, but model disparity reduces confidence.
Forecast models disagree whether an open wave or closed low will
push through the Plains. Both scenarios could bring periods of
snow, but overall impact level varies. Given this uncertainty,
will continue to show middle-of-the-road PoPs in the extended
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 520 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

Snow will continue throughout the daytime hours with light north
winds 10 to 15 kt. A few more inches of accumulation are forecast
today. IFR visibilities and IFR to MVFR ceilings will be common.
Accumulating snow will end during the early morning hours Monday,
but flurries will be possible well into the day.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
     SDZ038>040-050-052>071.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ098.

     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MNZ071-
     072-080-081-089-090-097.

IA...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
     IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.

NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for NEZ013-
     014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VandenBoogart
LONG TERM...VandenBoogart
AVIATION...VandenBoogart



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