Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 140330

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1030 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Northerly flow aloft has allowed cooler air to settle south today,
with the cool high pressure shifting southeast through the night.
This will allow for some cooler readings, but with southwest flow
developing at the surface around midnight or shortly after
temperatures will become steady or rise a touch towards sunrise.
Winds might get a touch breezy along the Buffalo Ridge late tonight
and early on Wednesday morning but looking at 10 to 20 mph with a
few higher gusts right now.

This westerly component will remain in place on Wednesday ahead of
another shot of cooler air. This will bring warmer conditions to all
locations. In fact, some enhanced mixing could lead towards highs
around 60 along the Missouri River into parts of northwest IA before
the cooler high pressure works south. Near and north of Interstate
90 temperatures will likely top out around noon then become steady
or fall in the afternoon. Still a lot of sun and lighter winds so a
nice day regardless.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

A ridge of high pressure aloft will build onto the Plains Thursday
as low pressure deepens over the Rockies. This will allow for
another mild day Thursday as clouds build over the western High
Plains. Lows Thursday morning will be in the 20s with highs from the
upper 30s to mid 40s.

The models appear to be more agreeable with the track of the system
Thursday night into Saturday morning. The upper level low appears as
though it will track from Colorado east through Kansas into northern
Missouri which should keep the majority of the precipitation to the
south of the area. The exception will likely be near the Missouri
River where a mix of lighter precipitation will be possible. Dry air
to the north should keep conditions dry. Still far enough out that
it bears watching but the southern track appears to be favored.

Once this system passes the model become much less agreeable Sunday
through Tuesday as the wobble back and forth between ejecting
another piece of energy and trying to build a ridge. There will
likely be some upper level energy moving through late Sunday night
into Monday but confidence is pretty low on location and strength.
Sunday is likely to be a bit above normal with temperatures below
normal Monday and Tuesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1029 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

There will be a period of low level wind shear at KSUX early
Wednesday morning, otherwise, VFR conditions are expected across
the area through the TAF period.




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