Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 221049

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
549 AM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

Still seeing some effects from the departing area of low pressure to
our east, and there could be a stray shower east of Interstate 29
during the early morning hours. Otherwise, a weak upper/surface
ridge slides across the region today, and with winds turning
southeasterly on the backside of the high and with more sun, will
have highs nearing 80 degrees west of I-29. Back to the east where
clouds will have a harder time breaking up, looking at readings in
the mid 70s.

Another shortwave slides into the Northern Plains tonight, bringing
a threat of showers and isolated thunderstorms to south central SD
and the the western James River Valley late. Lows will run in the
upper 50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

The shortwave continues to push across the area on Saturday, with
scattered shower and thunderstorm chances continuing. QPF amounts
are not that impressive, and heavier amounts will confined to any
individual cells that develop. Both CAPE and shear are relatively
weak so not expecting any severe storms. With considerable cloud
cover highs will run in the mid and upper 70s.

Unsettled conditions will continue through the beginning of the week
as another cut off upper level low tracks into region in the Monday
to Tuesday time frame. It still appears that this system will track
farther to the the north than the last one, and heavier
precipitation is progged to be mainly south of our area as
convection develops over Nebraska and Kansas. Because of the further
northward track, it appears that the heavier wrap around
precipitation would remain to our north, so in summary it would
appear that our area is between the two heavier areas of
precipitation. This will obviously have to be watched closely
however as any shift in the track of the system could result in our
area receiving heavier rainfall - which would aggravate further our
current river flooding.

By the end of the week, the upper level pattern transitions to
zonal, trending toward an upper level ridge, resulting in warming
temperatures as highs climb well into the 80s, possibly approaching
90 in some areas by Friday. The general trend will be for drying,
though cannot rule out an occasional shower/thunderstorm chance with
subtle waves moving through the upper level flow.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 548 AM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.


Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

Waters continue to slowly drain as Friday morning arrives.  We`re
starting to see many of the small creeks and basin stages plateau or
begin to lower.  This may allow the widespread areal flood warnings
to be expired on time.  The focus then turns to the more prominent
rivers in the area. Overnight, flood stages have trended higher on
the Floyd, Big Sioux, Little Sioux, and Rock rivers. Looking ahead,
concerns are growing for the rain potential this weekend, but
especially Monday into Tuesday. Weekend activity may be too
scattered to provide any large scale response to the ongoing
flooding, however rain on Monday could pose a more significant risk
to aggravating or renewing flooding on some streams and rivers.




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