Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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981 FXUS63 KGID 090905 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 405 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Highs today in the mid 60s to low 70s with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible (15-30%) along/north of I-80. - Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances (30-65%) Saturday night through the middle of next week. - Highs in the 70s to low 80s this weekend and into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 356 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Today and Tonight... Highs today will be in the mid 60s to low 70s. Winds will be breezy during the day, with northerly winds gusting 20 to 25 mph. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible (15-30%) this afternoon and evening for areas mainly along and north of Interstate 80. Showers and thunderstorms will begin to decrease in coverage around sunset with the loss of daytime heating, however a few showers/storms may linger till around midnight. Most areas are expected to remain dry, with areas that do receive rain seeing accumulations generally under 0.10 inches. Lows tonight will be in the mid 40s. Friday and Saturday... The upper level low which has meandered over the Plains over the past few days will become split in two on Friday. Part of the low will continue to progress east as it gets picked up by a trough dipping over the Midwest, and the other part of the low will become cut-off over the southwestern U.S. This split will allow for northwest flow to build aloft along with a stretch of dry weather for the area. Highs on Friday will be in the low 70s with breezy northerly winds. Saturday will be warmer with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Saturday night through Wednesday... As the cut-off low over the Desert southwest rejoins the broader jetstream, chances for showers and thunderstorms return to the area. Saturday night will see precipitation chances increase from west to east across the area. The highest precipitation chances in this forecast period are during the afternoon and evening hours on Sunday 30% (north) to 65% (south). The previously cut-off low will move off to the east Monday night, with chances for showers/storms coming to an end overnight. Severe weather is not expected this weekend due to weak instability and shear. An approaching trough over the Rockies will bring additional chances (25-50%) for scattered showers/storms to the area through the middle of next week. Model confidence begins to decrease at the end of this forecast period, with the 00z GFS and ECMWF disagreeing on the timing and strength of this approaching trough. Highs Sunday through the middle of next week will be slightly above normal (upper 60s to low 70s), with highs each day in the mid to upper 70s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1241 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Skies will remain clear through around sunrise when few-sct MVFR criteria clouds will move into the area. NBM probabilities keep the chances for MVFR ceiling below 30%, however if confidence increases in more widespread cloud coverage, MVFR ceilings could be introduced. Cloud heights will rise throughout the morning hours, to around 050 by the afternoon. Scattered showers are possible Thursday afternoon, but showers at the terminals or in their vicinity are too uncertain to include in the TAF at this time. Skies will clear during the evening hours, with few to sct clouds expected overnight. Winds will be NW-N throughout the taf period. Winds will increase after sunrise on Thursday, with sustained winds around 15kts and gusts to around 20kts. Winds will decrease around sunrise and become light overnight. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Davis AVIATION...Davis