Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 242200
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
500 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible through the
  evening hours, with the greatest potential for severe weather
  south of I-80. Half Dollar sized hail and 60 MPH wind gusts
  are the main threats.

- A cold front will reach the western fringes of the local area
  by midnight. A period of freezing rain will likely precede a
  switch to snow with a glaze up to a tenth of an inch of ice
  accumulation possible. Freezing rain will likely reach the 281
  corridor around sunrise, dissipating as it moves further east
  by 9 AM.

- Strong northwest winds (with gusts of 50 to 55 MPH) will
  overspread the area behind the cold front. Blizzard conditions
  are expected for some locations through Monday night due to
  the combination of snow and these very strong winds. Near
  blizzard conditions could extend into areas with the winter
  weather advisory during periods of snow.

- Snow ends by Tuesday morning, although blowing snow could
  continue in spots through Tuesday afternoon.

- After a cold day on Tuesday (with wind chill below zero to
  start the day), temperatures trend warmer through the rest of
  the week with 60s and 70s in the forecast for Friday!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Complicated forecast with still plenty of uncertainty this
afternoon.

Cloudy skies persisted across most of the area today, with some
breaks in cloud cover to our south and west allowing for
thunderstorm development the past hour or so. While the
atmosphere is only marginally unstable, it will not take
particularly tall storms to generate severe hail, so expect the
potential for strong to severe storms to persist into the mid to
late evening hours, with the main focus of stronger activity
south of I-80 where the better instability exists.

Later tonight, expect a cold front to approach from the west.
As cold air moves in near the surface, warmer air will
initially persist aloft, which could result in an hour or two of
freezing rain. Models have been honing in on this potential
over the past 24 hours, with a light glaze to around a tenth of
ice accumulation looking fairly likely - especially on elevated
surfaces and bridges. Freezing rain should then transition to
snow, which combined with wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph, will
likely create hazardous travel conditions by daybreak for areas
in the current blizzard warning. Further east in the advisory
area, after the initial glaze of ice early in the morning hours,
there could be a break in the potential for snow, with little
to no accumulation during the mid to late morning hours, with
models indicating a resurgence in activity across north central
Kansas during the early afternoon hours - likely spreading along
and east of the Highway 281 corridor during the mid to late
afternoon hours. Winds will still be strong at the time, so
expect some temporarily reduced visibilities across much of the
advisory area at some point.

Once the snow potential pushes east by early Tuesday morning,
expect a very cold start to the day with temperatures in the
teens, but wind chills falling below zero across much of the
area. Due to the winds likely not tapering off significantly
until later in the day Tuesday, additionally expect the
potential for some blowing snow - especially for areas that
have 1+ inch of snow on the ground.

Thereafter...dry west northwesterly flow aloft will continue
across the area through Thursday, with an upper level ridge
helping temperatures climb well above normal to end the week and
start next weekend. A weak disturbance and surface front will
cross the area late in the period, bringing back the chance for
some light rainfall back to the area Saturday night or Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1054 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Models try to raise ceilings this afternoon to a MVFR ceiling.
Decided to raise to BKN010 this afternoon into the evening.
I don`t have the highest of confidence this will happen, but
models have kept the trend so I kept it in. Expect showers into
the overnight hours. Early tomorrow morning I tried to time a
2-3hr window of potential freezing precipitation before it
changes over to -SN tomorrow morning. The winds will pickup
overnight and debating about upping the gusts a little more at
the end of the TAF period. Depending on how much snow we get
BLSN and DRSN could be an issue Monday afternoon into Tuesday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 7 AM CDT Tuesday
     for NEZ041-047-048-062-063-074>076-083>085.
     Blizzard Warning from 1 AM Monday to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for
     NEZ039-040-046-060-061-072-073-082.
KS...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 7 AM CDT Tuesday
     for KSZ005-006-017.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Beda


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