769
FXUS63 KGID 082342
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
642 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- We could see a few isolated thunderstorms moving into our
  southwestern areas late this evening. A few additional
  isolated thunderstorms could develop about anywhere, but
  favoring our northeastern zones after 1 AM into mid morning on
  Wednesday.

- Severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday into Thursday
  night, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.

- Thursday will be a hot day ahead of the next cold front with
  highs in the 90s to around 100. However, Friday and Saturday
  will be more pleasant with highs in the upper 70s to lower
  80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Today and Tonight...

Mainly clear skies are expected for the rest of the afternoon
and evening with light winds. Thunderstorms will develop across
the high plains of eastern Colorado late this afternoon/early
evening and track east through the evening hours. These storms
could reach our far western zones as the storms diminish and die
out late this evening to just after midnight. Additional
elevated thunderstorms may form late tonight and closer to dawn
on Wednesday mainly favoring our northeastern forecast area.
These early morning storms are hit and miss on the models and
would likely be rather isolated. However, can not rule out a
storm or two becoming strong to severe late tonight/early
Wednesday morning given MUCAPE values of over 3000 J/KG. Deep
layer shear is rather weak at around 20 KTS so storms could be
more of a pulse type thunderstorm rather than long lasting
storms. Overnight shift will need to keep a close eye on the
radar for this possible late night thunderstorm development.


Wednesday...

We could see some of those lingering thunderstorms from late
tonight through primarily mid/late morning and again focused
mainly across our eastern zones (20-30% chances). We expect a
dry afternoon, but then another round of thunderstorms could
move in from the northwest Wednesday evening/night (20-30%).
Deep layer shear will be more impressive Wednesday evening at
35-40 KTS and MLCAPE values should be over 2500 J/KG with a weak
vort max moving through. Overall the forcing is rather weak and
models are again hit and miss on generating any thunderstorms,
but if thunderstorm can develop in this weakly forced
environment, then they could become severe given
instability/shear profile. The SPC is indicating a marginal
threat for severe weather on Wednesday and this seems valid
given the parameters. The main hindrance will be questions
regarding coverage area and if storms can initiate.


Thursday/Thursday Night...

This is when our more substantial 500 mb trough will push
through with plenty of heat and instability out ahead of this
system. We could be pushing heat advisory criteria on Thursday
with heat index values south of Hwy 6 into Kansas around 100
degrees. This is our best chance at a more widespread
thunderstorm/severe thunderstorm event and the SPC has already
placed much of our area under a slight risk.


Friday through the Weekend...

Friday and Saturday will be cooler behind the cold front with
highs only in the upper 70s to lower 80s most areas. Kansas
zones will have the better chance for thunderstorms on
Friday/Friday night being closer to the departing cold front.
Temperatures should start to warm back up into the upper 80s by
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 640 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Tonight: VFR expected. Dry/quiet conditions and light winds
through at least midnight. Late tonight, some CAMs continue to
suggest the potential for iso-scat showers/storms, either from
MCV that arrives from the W, or from a layer of isentropic
ascent in the 5-10K ft layer. Maintained PROB30s after 08-09Z at
both sites given continued high uncertainty/low confidence.

Wednesday: VFR expected. Iso-scat convection chcs continue
through around mid-morning, then expect some clearing and steady
Srly winds 7-11kt for the rest of the day. Another round of
convection could move in from the W late Wed eve, but pattern
remains one where chances are frequent, but confidence on
coverage, timing, etc are low until activity actually develops.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...Thies