689
FXUS63 KIWX 111615
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1215 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sunny, warm and dry Sunday.

- Periodic chances for showers and storms this upcoming work
  week. Best chances for rain Monday night through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

A cold front was moving east across the area. There was up
virtually no instability or shear to work with, although upper
level jet support and some low level convergence was able to
sustain showers. Have removed thunder given the lack of support
for storms and no thunder observed. The showers should end
across northwest Ohio by 10 AM EDT followed by clearing. There
has been large social media interest with the solar storm and
subsequent Northern Lights visible across the area. The latest
forecast from the Space Weather Prediction Center indices the
solar activity is expected to persist into Sunday. It looks like
skies will be favorable tonight to view any additional
activity.

A fairly large upper level trof like an impulse will drift east
and finally reach the forecast area about Tuesday. Overall
factors for severe storms are limited, although precipitable
water values will rise above 1.2 inches and hover in the 90th
percentile for this time of the year as the upper level system
arrives. Hydro concerns should be somewhat limited given the
advance state of vegetation and lack of a more favorable
backbuilding pattern. Locally heavy rainfall is still likely
along with rises on several rivers. The GFES ensembles favor
some rivers returning above minor flood stage, but overall flood
and hydro impacts appear limited.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Strong subsidence drying will ensure VFR through the period. Gusty
nw winds will collapse toward sunset and becoming light/variable
overnight.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...T