Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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185 FXUS64 KLCH 081739 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1239 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1018 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Good morning, The update involves updating daytime temperatures with latest trends. All other parameters look to be on point this morning, thus no other changes were made. 11/Calhoun && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday night) Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 An anomalously warm and humid airmass for early May remains in place across the region this morning. Several record high minimums were broken yesterday morning and several more are on track to do so this morning based on the latest observations (it`s still 80 degrees at the Lafayette regional airport as of this writing). Patchy fog has once again developed in a few spots that have seen a drop in wind speeds. Expect this to dissipate no later than 14Z. The rest of the day looks to be a virtual carbon copy of yesterday although with perhaps a bit more sunshine this afternoon. With afternoon highs expected to eclipse the 90 degree mark across parts of central Louisiana, apparent temperatures will flirt with triple digits across Vernon, Rapides and Avoyelles parishes. Winds will remain elevated through the day in response to an Eastward advancing low over central Oklahoma that will bring continued severe weather to parts of the plains today. Winds will relax somewhat by early Thursday morning which may allow for more widespread fog formation although fog isn`t expected to become dense. A shortwave moving across the central U.S. will push a cold front through the region Thursday night. Guidance has consistently shifted the precip associated with this boundary later into the evening over the last 24 hours. Severe weather parameters across central Louisiana are still favorable for the development of some severe storms Thursday night with probs decreasing closer to the coast. Additionally, the very moist airmass in place (forecast PWAT values of 1.75-2 inches) will support periods of torrential downpours that could produce rainfall rate driven flash flooding. As with the severe threat, this looks to be confined primarily to central Louisiana with the threat lessening with southward extent. A noticeably cooler (albeit not cold) and drier airmass will advect into the region beginning Friday morning with dewpoints falling back into the 50s by Friday night. Jones && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 As the period kicks off on Saturday, conditions will still be quite pleasant. The area of high pressure will be centered over the Southern Plains with northwesterly flow aloft. This pattern will change going into Sunday. The high pressure will slip off to the east allowing for southerly flow to return. Additionally, we will see a series of disturbances move across the area, leading to showers and storms picking up. Going into Monday, an upper level trough will exit the Rockies, moving into the Central Plains with a warm front slowly lifting into our Gulf waters. Widespread precip is expected to ramp up over the day and heavy rainfall can be expected. Part of our area is in a Slight to Marginal risk for excessive rainfall. Model guidance is still a bit murky in the extended period, especially in regard to where the upper level trough will be early to mid next week. If it is slower to move off to the east, we could see an additional days of scattered precip. Temperatures will rise slowly but will be near our normals for this time of year with MaxTs in the 80s and MinTs in the 60s. Stigger/87 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Tightening pressure gradient has resulted in breezy south to southeast winds this morning. Expect this trend to continue through the afternoon before winds decrease marginally in the overnight period. MVFR ceilings have been more stubborn this morning than expected and never really dissipated. They, too will hang around for the remainder of the afternoon and early evening before winds diminish and ceilings can fall. Sub-1000 ft ceilings are expected after 03Z along with some lowered VIS from ground fog. No dense fog is expected. Winds and VIS improve after 14Z tomorrow morning with the new diurnal cycle. 11/Calhoun && .MARINE... Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 A light to moderate onshore flow and seas with seas 2 to 3 feet will prevail through Thursday. Areas of light fog/haze will continue over the coastal waters through late morning, improving briefly this afternoon before redeveloping early this evening into Thursday. A cold front will push through the coastal waters Thursday night accompanied by isolated showers and thunderstorms. Offshore flow will develop behind the front Friday and Saturday. Onshore flow becomes reestablished Sunday as high pressure slides east of the area. Precipitation chances will also increase again Sunday and Monday as a series of upper level disturbance moves across the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 72 91 65 84 / 10 20 50 0 LCH 75 89 71 86 / 0 10 20 10 LFT 77 91 73 87 / 0 10 30 10 BPT 74 89 71 88 / 0 10 10 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...66 LONG TERM....87 AVIATION...11