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000
FXUS61 KOKX 210711
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
311 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in through early next week before giving
way to a frontal system on Wednesday. The frontal system impacts
the area on Wednesday followed by high pressure to close out
the week. Another frontal system may impact the area for the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure continues to build into the region and will provide
cooler and drier conditions today. A large upper level low over
southeast Canada will result in broad troughing across the eastern
US. A southern stream shortwave along the base of the trough will
develop a wave of low pressure along the southeast coast through the
day. This low will pass far enough south keeping its moisture field
well offshore, however there should be enough middle and upper level
moisture to result in a mostly cloudy day. With the colder airmass
working into the region and the mostly cloudy skies, expect
temperatures today to only be in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The wave of low pressure pushes east tonight into the Atlantic.
Clouds will decrease from northwest to southeast leading to mostly
clear skies tonight. Another chilly night is in store with lows in
the middle to upper 30s inland and lower 40s closer to the coast. A
usual colder spots across the CWA may see temperatures fall close to
to even below freezing. Will include some patchy frost in the
forecast for these locations.

With surface high pressure over the region Monday and Tuesday,
expect sunny conditions both days with temperatures on Monday in the
the upper 50s and lower 60s. On Tuesday, temperatures will be
slightly warmer, mainly in the lower and middle 60s. Clear skies and
light winds will allow Monday nights lows to fall into the 30s and
40s. Once again, some patchy frost will remain possible early
Tuesday morning well NW of the city and in the LI Pine Barrens.

The pattern starts to change Tuesday night as high pressure moves
east of the region and a cold front approaches from the west. Expect
an increase in cloud cover. There are some model timing issues with
just how quickly the front moves into the area and stuck with a
general model consensus. Will include some slight chance POPS
north and west of NYC for now late Tuesday night into early
Wednesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A mid-level trough swings through the area on Wednesday allowing for
the development and subsequent translation of a surface frontal
system. The center of the low looks to pass north of the area with
the cold front pushing through Wednesday afternoon into the evening.
This will bring a chance of showers to the area. While not included
in the forecast at this time due to low confidence, embedded
thunderstorms can not be ruled out with any convective elements
within the precipitation.

High pressure looks to quickly build in from the west Wednesday
night into Thursday and will remain in place to close out the end of
the week with gradual upper level ridging building in as well.
Models struggle to consistently handle the following energy upstream
of the ridge but all have some pieces of energy approaching the area
from the west into the weekend. This may result in some unsettled
conditions that are handled with a chance for showers.

Temperatures will remain at or below average for the extended period
with highs each day in the middle 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure builds in from the west overnight. A surface trough
sets up across the area on Sunday.

VFR. Gusty NW winds of 20 to 25 kt will continue to diminish,
eventually subsiding after 06-08Z and becoming WNW at less than 10
kt. On Sunday, winds back to the W increasing 10-15kt G15-20kt.
Coastal locations may back to the WSW if not SW. Confidence in a
true seabreeze is low due to the strength of the westerly winds in
the mixed layer.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts may be more occasional on Sunday.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday Night-Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower with showers. S winds 10-15G20-25kt in the
afternoon/evening, becoming NW at night.

Thursday: VFR. Gusty NW flow.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A relatively weak pressure gradient will remain over the area waters
today and continue through Tuesday. This will result in Sub-SCA
conditions. The pressure gradient tightens with slowly increasing
winds Tuesday night into Wednesday, increasing the likelihood
of SCA conditions across all ocean waters during this period.
Seas on a southerly flow build up to around 5 ft on Wednesday. A
cold front then passes through, and SCA conds will still be
likely on the ocean Wednesday night. Offshore winds diminish on
Thursday along with subsiding seas. Sub-advisory conditions are
therefore anticipated by the end of the day.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/MW
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...BC/MW
HYDROLOGY...BC/MW