Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 280242
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1042 PM EDT Sun May 27 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry conditions will return to the Eastern Great Lakes region
Monday through Wednesday as high pressure passes through. The chance
for widespread soaking rainfall returns Thursday into Friday as the
remnants of Alberto move through the eastern Great Lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Regional radars this late evening indicate afternoon and evening
convection has diminished, and moved out of the forecast area.
Skies are clearing across WNY and the North Country and with a
moist airmass and light winds, this will set the stage for some
fog formation, especially across western zones and near the
Lakes. As we cool tonight fog will likely fill the river valleys
of SW NYS, and also form over the relatively cool lake waters.
While the fog over the lakes will mainly remain over water, a
light southwest wind over Lake Erie may bring this deck of low
stratus and fog inland over Buffalo and spread into the Niagara
Frontier tonight. Some fog is also likely over Lake Ontario.
Temperatures will remain mild with lows in the upper 50s to
lower 60s.

On Monday, a weak surface trough will cross the region, reaching
Western New York by mid morning and then moving into central New
York by afternoon. The timing is too early to take advantage of
diurnal heating in our area, with the majority of model guidance
keeping the area dry. There may be a stray late morning or early
afternoon shower across far eastern portions of the cwa from
Wellsville to Lowville. Otherwise, lingering stratus or fog should
gradually dissipate during the morning giving way to quite a bit of
afternoon sunshine. Temperatures will again be on the warm side,
with highs in the mid 80s for lower elevations, except cooler within
a few miles of the lakes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Drier air is on the way as a cold front approaches Lake Ontario and
northern NY Monday night. Showers will be ongoing along and near the
frontal boundary as it moves towards the international border. As it
sags southward into the night hours, showers will weaken. Can`t rule
out a few light showers reaching the St. Lawrence River and
Adirondacks before diminishing to nothing. Elsewhere...winds will
become northerly from north to south overnight. High pressure will
build into the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday and Tuesday night. Cooler
and drier conditions expected Tuesday and Tuesday night as high
pressure builds into the region. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s
Tuesday and lows in the mid 50s Tuesday night.

High pressure moves across northern New England Wednesday and winds
become southerly across the eastern Great Lakes. Dewpoints will
climb into the mid 60s and with temperatures reaching the mid 80s
Wednesday. Subtropical storm Alberto will move into the lower Great
Lakes region by Wednesday evening. The remnants of Alberto will stay
to our south and west through Wednesday however, moisture advection
will increase to the east Wednesday night and showers may begin to
move into the Southern Tier by Thursday morning. Amounts will be
light through Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The impacts from the remnants of Alberto will be the primary
concern during at least the first half of the period. Latest
medium range models guidance remaining consistent showing the
remnant low passing just to our west across the central Great
Lakes before passing north through eastern canada, which is in
line with the official National Hurricane Center forecast track.

A plume of deep tropical moisture will get drawn up on the
eastern side of the system into western New York Thursday into
Friday with precipitable water values forecast to nearing 2
inches, about 3 standard deviations above normal and could reach
into record territory when compared to our sounding
climatology.

There are still plenty of details to work out as how all this
will play out, especially considering Alberto has not even made
landfall yet. But overall, most of the period looks unsettled
with plenty of opportunities for convection and some potential
for heavy rainfall. It may not be until late in the weekend
before the tropical moisture completely pulls out of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For the 00Z TAFS VFR flight conditions are found, and these
conditions will persist for the next 6 hours. Thereafter, with a
moist airmass in place we will likely see fog formation.

For ROC/ART a southerly flow should downslope which is likely to
prevent any fog. It`s a different story at BUF/IAG where a light SSW
flow will likely bring lake fog and stratus onshore. This is a
challenging forecast, but this is likely to result in a period of
IFR or lower conditions late tonight, lasting well into the morning
hours on Monday. Meanwhile, valley fog will develop which is likely
to impact JHW. In each case, there is a potential for locally dense
fog.

Conditions will improve Monday afternoon with widespread VFR
conditions expected across the area as high pressure builds in. Any
showers that form tomorrow will likely be to the east and south of
the TAF region.

Outlook...

Monday night...VFR.
Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR.
Wednesday night...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday and Friday...MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms likely.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will remain anchored off the coast of the southeast
states through Memorial Day, with a weak pressure gradient in place
across the eastern Great Lakes. This will promote light winds and
flat wave action the majority of the time.

Areas of fog will develop tonight and last through Monday. There
also may be a few widely scattered thunderstorms at times with
locally higher winds and waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Apffel/Church/Thomas
NEAR TERM...Apffel/Thomas
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...Apffel/Thomas
MARINE...Apffel


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