Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 251922
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
322 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moving through the Mid-Atlantic will produce
scattered showers today. High pressure will move in tonight and
dry things out for Thursday. The weather will remain unsettled
as the pattern stays active into the first half of the weekend.

A stretch of fair, dry weather will start Sunday. Temperatures
will warm nicely next week as high pressure floats across from
Canada, but then sets up as a Bermuda High and turns the wind
out of the south.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Latest Radar has two lines of showers moving through central and
western PA. These showers will slowly move to the NE as the
afternoon continues. Another light is slowly moving northward
across the Mason Dixon line into SE PA. Latest HRRR has these
lines continuing to the east and fading between 02Z to 06Z.
 The upslope into the Alleghenies and Laurels will keep a few
showers around into the night, The upper level system will lift
into the NE by tomorrow morning. Cloudy skies will continue
tonight into tomorrow though the clouds will keep minimum
temperatures around normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Skies will begin cloudy tomorrow and slowly improve as the day
continues. Northwesterly flow will keep winds gusty through the
first half of the afternoon with gusts in the 15 to 25 mph
possible. Weak high pressure will build into the region through
the latter half of tomorrow which will bring clearing skies
Thursday night into Friday. Temperatures Thursday will be
slightly below normal due to cold air advection due to FROPA and
the brisk northwesterly flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Will be tracking a weather system moving through the area Thu
night and Friday raising pops. This is ahead of the next trough
that will be over the area for the weekend. Will keep pops in
the forecast through Saturday when surface pressure rises and
drier air moves in for the second half of the weekend. This is
all ahead of a rising heights and more ridging setting up for
the region. Look for temperatures finally rising above average
and real spring weather arriving next week with many areas
finally seeing a substantial greenup.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As per the above discussion, lack of instability and diurnal
heating, will keep thunder out of the TAFs this afternoon.
The weak SFC flow from the east southeast will keep the upslope
flow for most of the region. This coupled with the moist upper
levels will allow the low CIGS to continue through the most of
the afternoon. Several lines of showers along the approaching
trough and corresponding front will bring light precipitation
and possible IFR cigs to BFD and JST this afternoon. Possible
shower activity will fade as the evening continues with it
ending between 00Z to 06Z.
 MVFR to IFR cigs remain probable tonight into tomorrow morning
before the dry NW flow Thursday morning, and a building ridge
Thursday afternoon erode all ceilings. Northwesterly flow will
keep winds gusty from around sunrise Thursday through Thursday
afternoon. Wind gusts upwards of 20 to 25 mph are expected.



Outlook...

Thu...AM low cigs possible W Mtns.

Fri...Areas of rain with low cigs etc.

Sat...AM showers/cig reductions possible NW Mtns.

Sun...Reductions possible NW Mtns.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Ceru
SHORT TERM...Ceru
LONG TERM...Ross
AVIATION...Ceru/Martin



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