708
FXUS63 KDDC 112141
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
441 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of beneficial rainfall are expected Saturday night
  through Monday morning. Rainfall amounts of 0.50 to 0.75 are
  expected.

- Strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday
  afternoon and evening, with marginally severe hail possible.

- Additional opportunities are expected Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

An upper low over the Desert Southwest will approach the high
plains this evening and overnight, with mid level warm
advection developing. One batch of forcing will arrive this
evening, with rain developing across west central and far
southwest Kansas. Rain showers will then spread eastward during
the late evening. Another round of showers will move east out of
Colorado late tonight and persist into early Sunday.

A break in precipitation should occur mid to late morning
Sunday. However, by mid-day, the upper low will approach
Kansas, with -18C 500mb cold pool entering far southwest
Kansas by noon. Low level moisture will increase ahead of this
system, with dewpoints in the 50s by mid day. Some breaks in the
cloud will allow for temperatures to rise to the convective
temperature in the upper 60s to lower 70s, resulting 1000-1500
g/kg surface based CAPE, especially from Garden City
southwestward to Liberal and Johnson. Additionally, the exit
region of a 60-80 kt upper level jet will be situated across
southwest Kansas. Given the presence of the upper low, the
capping inversion will be very weak so that t-storm initiation
is likely by mid day to early afternoon. These storms will
initially be isolated to scattered so that hail from nickel to
quarter size can`t be ruled out. Wouldn`t be surprised if a weak
landspout tornado or two occurred given the presence of the
upper low, with relatively cold temperatures at mid levels.
During the late afternoon these storms will congeal into lines
of storms with locally heavy rain; but by this point the storms
will probably not be strong or severe. However, given the
convective nature of the precipitation, rain totals will be
highly variable, with some locations receiving over an inch,
and other locations getting far less. Aside from areas of
localized convection, the storm total rain through Sunday night
of an inch across much of southwest Kansas may be overdone.

Probabilistically, the CMCE, ECMWF and GEFS ensemble means
indicate 60-80% chances of .5" or more through Sunday night
across central and southwest Kansas and 10-30% chances of 1" or
greater. The overall probabilities are slightly higher across
central Kansas at locations such as Hays, Stafford and Pratt.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

The aforementioned upper low will be east of here on Monday.
However, with continued cold temperatures at 500mb, along with
daytime heating and marginal moisture, a few showers are still
possible, especially over central Kansas. By Tuesday, some air
mass recovery is possible across the western high plains as
winds become southeasterly in response to mid level westerly
flow across the Rockies. Thus, there is a small chance of
thunderstorms for places such as Syracuse, Johnson and Lakin
Tuesday night. A weak upper level disturbance will approach the
central high plains Wednesday. There is a better chance of
thunderstorms Wednesday evening and night as this system passes.
The best chance of locally heavy rains may be across central
Kansas Wednesday night since this system is an open wave as
opposed to a closed low. This is supported by the ensemble means
that indicate 30-50% chances of .5" or greater across central
Kansas Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night, with lesser
chances farther west. How far west the heavier rains occur
depends on the placement of the low level instability. But given
the time of year and lack of a closed off upper level low, this
is more likely across central Kansas. A few of the storms
Wednesday afternoon and evening could be marginally severe given
moderate surface based CAPE and modest vertical shear.

The upper level flow will become more zonal by Thursday and
Friday as the weak disturbance passes to the east of our area.
This will allow for warming, with highs rising into the lower
80s Thursday and near 90 for Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 441 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

KDDC radar at 2130z depicted scattered showers and embedded weak
thunderstorms west of GCK/LBL, moving slowly east. As such, the
00z TAFs for these airports start with a VCSH/VCTS/CB mention.
VFR will continue through at least 06z Sun, but consensus of
short term models shows stratus ceilings lowering to MVFR at
GCK/LBL/DDC by 12z Sun. Scattered rain showers and limited
thunder are expected at or near the airports 06-15z Sun, with a
more widespread coverage of scattered thunderstorms at/near all
the airports after 18z Sun. VFR is expected to prevail outside
any rain showers/convection, so kept TAFs simple for now,
mentioning -SHRA with P6SM, or mentioned VCSH/VCTS/CB.
Visibility may be reduced to 3-4 sm in BR around 12z Sun. Light
south winds will continue with a southerly component through
15z Sun. After 15z, an increase in south winds is forecast, with
gusts to near 25 kts at LBL/GCK/DDC.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Turner