Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 271158 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
758 AM EDT Sun May 27 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 758 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2018

Freshened up the POP trends through today. The latest HRRR is
accounting for a little more of a lull through this morning,
before mainly scattered convection refires this afternoon. This
seems reasonable, given the diminishing trend on radar, so have
delayed the better POPs and thunder a bit later into today.
Updates have been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 400 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2018

The surface remains weakly signaled across the Ohio and Tennessee
valleys this morning, with broad low pressure near the bootheel
of Missouri and leftover outflow pushing south of the Ohio River.
High pressure remains off the Eastern Seaboard, with weak but
persistent return flow across eastern Kentucky. Meanwhile,
Subtropical Storm Alberto gradually churns across the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico. Aloft, a dampening trough is moving across the
Ohio Valley, with a mid-level wave moving through the Tennessee
valley, and ridging noted across the Plains.

Eastern Kentucky will see another round of scattered to numerous
showers and storms today, as we remain under the influence of the
departing trough. The better convective coverage looks to remain
across the southeast, and given the current passing wave and some
residual outflow remaining, this seems reasonable. Highs will
average in the low to mid 80s under partly to mostly cloudy skies.

Convection should diminish a bit quicker after dark tonight, as
forcing will be weaker compared to tonight. Lows will average in
the mid to upper 60s. On Monday, some influence from Alberto at
the mid and upper levels will bring scattered convection once
again during the afternoon. Highs will be similar, with low to mid
80s for most locations. Slower storm motions, PWATS in the 1.7 to
1.8 inch range, and high freezing levels will yield locally heavy
rainers and will continue to mention this in the HWO.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 430 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2018

Tropical Storm Alberto will make landfall along the Gulf Coast
during the short term portion of the forecast, weakening to a
tropical depression as it shifts northward through the deep South.
Alberto will then make it to the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys by
midweek, as it continues to weaken. The upper level low will
eventually become absorbed into the longwave pattern by Thursday,
as the surface low will become absorbed into an ongoing low
pressure system. This system will be shifting eastward across the
Great Lakes region, with an associated cold front poised to
quickly shift southward towards Kentucky by Friday evening,
traversing Kentucky from Friday night through Saturday, before
sinking south of the region by Saturday evening.

The influx of moisture into the southeast portion of the U.S. from
the topical depression will keep shower and thunderstorm chances
in the forecast each day, along with mostly cloudy skies. Showers
and thunderstorms will become more widespread Tuesday and
especially Wednesday afternoons as the low moves across the state.
Even once it passes to the north, SW flow will remain in place,
continuing to pump warm, moist, and unstable air into the region.
As such, shower and thunderstorm chances will continue through the
remainder of the workweek. As we head into the weekend, winds will
become more westerly just ahead of the frontal passage from the
north, and then shift NW to N behind. This will cut off some of
the best thunderstorm potential, and then eventually the best
precip potential for the second half of the weekend as a much
drier northerly airmass moves into place.

As for temperatures, expect rather consistent hot and humid
conditions during the day, and mild conditions overnight. Highs
will be in the low to mid 80s with heat indexes in the mid and
upper 90s. Overnight lows will be in the mid and upper 60s. These
temperatures are some 10 degrees above seasonal normals. Things
will cool down just a few degrees after the passage of the cold
front during the second half of the weekend, but we will still be
above seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 758 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2018

Some MVFR clouds will affect locations along and south of the Hal
Rogers Parkway through mid-morning, before raising up to VFR.
Isolated to scattered showers will diminish through this morning,
before additional activity refires after 16z. For now, will
continue to generalize at the TAF sites, keeping the mention of
VCTS. Storms will generally dissipate by around dusk, with the
potential for MVFR fog after 06z depending on clearing. Winds will
remain light and variable through the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



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