855
FXXX12 KWNP 080031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Oct 08 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels with an X2.1/2B flare at 07/1902 UTC
from Region 3842 (S15W63, Eki/beta-gamma). The X-ray flux at GOES-16 has
remained elevated above M5 since. As the region sits near the west limb,
ejecta is easily seen in GOES satellite imagery. There are only but a
few images available in coronagraph imagery as of 07/2100 UTC to confirm
a CME is associated with the flare.

Other notable Regions 3848 (N13E01, Dki/beta-gamma-delta), 3849 (S07E23,
Dki/beta-gamma), and 3852 (S12E67, Dho/beta) are all fairly large but
have remained quiet and stable over the period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be moderate (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with
a chance for isolated X-class (R3-Strong or greater) flares through 10
Oct.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels. There has
been a slight rise in electrons following the X2.1 flare but remains
below threshold as of 07/2100 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geostationary orbit is
suppressed following CME arrival but will likely rebound to moderate,
potentially above threshold once the solar wind eases. There is a chance
for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach the S1 (Minor)
threshold through 10 Oct due to the enhanced flare potential
from multiple regions near the western limb of the solar disk.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters have remained elevated since CME arrival 06 Oct.
Total field has been been between 7.4 to 13.5 nT with the Bz component
dropping as low as -14 nT at 07/1826 UTC. The Bz component has remained
in the southward orientation since 07/1411 UTC. Solar wind speeds have
remained around 450 km/s. The phi angle has been predominantly negative
(towards the Sun) but as of 07/1916 UTC has flipped to positive (away
from the Sun).

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters will remain elevated and variable as CME
influences wane into 08 Oct. An additional disturbance is
possible on 08 Oct due to weak, positive polarity CH HSS influences. A
return to an ambient-like environment is expected on 10 Oct.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The field reached G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming levels during the
12-15 UTC and 18-21 UTC synoptic periods due to CME arrival with Minor
and Active periods in between.

.Forecast...
G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming levels will likely linger for one or
two synoptic periods into 08 Oct. Unsettled to active levels are
expected into 09 Oct as any lingering CME effects wane coupled with
weak, positive polarity CH HSS effects. Mostly quiet conditions are
expected 10 Oct unless any fast moving CMEs arrive in the interim.

-Bri