Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
509
FXXX10 KWNP 101231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Oct 10 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 10-Oct 12 2024 is 8.33 (NOAA Scale
G4).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 10-Oct 12 2024
Oct 10 Oct 11 Oct 12
00-03UT 2.00 7.67 (G4) 5.33 (G1)
03-06UT 2.67 8.00 (G4) 5.00 (G1)
06-09UT 1.67 7.33 (G3) 4.67 (G1)
09-12UT 2.00 6.67 (G3) 4.33
12-15UT 4.67 (G1) 6.33 (G2) 4.33
15-18UT 6.67 (G3) 6.33 (G2) 5.33 (G1)
18-21UT 8.33 (G4) 6.00 (G2) 4.67 (G1)
21-00UT 7.67 (G4) 5.33 (G1) 4.33
Rationale: Analysis of the CME associated with the X1.8 flare suggests
further enhancement 10 Oct into 11 Oct, reaching G4 (Severe) levels is
likely with G5 (Extreme) levels possible. G1 (Minor) conditions are
expected on 12 Oct as CME influence wanes.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 10-Oct 12 2024
Oct 10 Oct 11 Oct 12
S1 or greater 99% 75% 50%
Rationale: S2-S3 (Moderate-Strong) solar radiation storm levels are
expected to continue through 10 Oct and begin a slow recovery through
the rest of the period.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Oct 09 2024 1547 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 10-Oct 12 2024
Oct 10 Oct 11 Oct 12
R1-R2 75% 75% 70%
R3 or greater 40% 40% 35%
Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with
a chance for isolated R3 (Strong or greater) radio blackout events
through 12 Oct.