992
FZAK80 PAFC 042212
ICEAFC

Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters
National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program
211 PM AKDT Friday 4 October 2024

FORECAST VALID...Wednesday 9 October 2024

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...Moderate to High

SYNOPSIS...A deep low pressure system controls the pattern over the
pattern from the Bering Sea northward into the Arctic. That system
weakens and moves into the Gulf of Alaska early next week while two
weak system form over the Gulf of Anadyr and Canadian Archipelago.
Overall the storm track stays near the Aleutians.

The main ice edge extends from Russian waters to 73 9N 172 1W to
77 6N 157 30W to 76 38N 148 17W to 77 3N 143 3W to 75 40N 138
50W and continues east into Canadian waters. The ice edge is open
water. Sea ice also lingers off the northern coast of the Chukchi
Peninsula and at times moves into Alaska waters between the Bering
Strait and Point Hope.


From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge extends from 290
nm west-northwest of Point Barrow to 330 nm north of Point Barrow to
350 nm north of Oliktok Point to 345 nm north of Demarcation Point
and continues east into Canadian waters. The ice edge is open water.
Sea ice also lingers off the northern coast of the Chukchi Peninsula
and at times moves into Alaska waters between the Bering Strait and
Point Hope.

-BEAUFORT SEA-

PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-

FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is high. Easterly winds will gradually weaken through the
weekend into Monday. Overall, expect the ice pack to move west-
northwest 10 to 20 nm through Wednesday. New ice growth should be
stalled along the ice edge, but possible within the pack.

-CHUKCHI SEA-

PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-

FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is high. Winds will become northerly on Friday and
persist through Monday, with light and variable winds through
Wednesday. Expect the ice pack to move south 20 to 30 nm overall
through Wednesday. Expect pack ice to consolidated against the
Russian coast and flow into the Bering Strait.

&&
Lawson