Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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552 ACUS01 KWNS 110453 SWODY1 SPC AC 110451 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across portions of central New Mexico into southwest Texas. Hail and strong gusts may accompany this activity. ...Southwest Texas into Central New Mexico... An upper low over the Southwest U.S. will pivot east across the Four Corners vicinity by Sunday morning. At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary will extend west to east across south-central TX. Low-level easterly flow will allow for some modest moistening (dewpoints upper 40s to upper 50s) across far southwest TX into eastern NM. Steep midlevel lapse rates will allow for modest destabilization, with MUCAPE values forecast from 500-1500 J/kg. Vertically veering wind profiles, with elongated/straight forecast hodographs suggest rotating updrafts/storm organization is possible. Isolated storms are forecast to develop in this post-frontal upslope flow regime. However, convection may largely be elevated to the cool side of the somewhat nebulous surface boundary across southwest/south-central TX. Nevertheless, this environment will support large hail with any stronger cells that develop. Additional cells may form near the central mountains in NM, also posing a risk for marginally severe hail. Deeper boundary-layer mixing and little capping across this area also may support locally strong gusts. Additional storms may develop eastward across northern Mexico and cross the Rio Grande during the evening. Any storms closer to the Rio Grande may become surface-based as they will be in closer proximity to the surface boundary and richer low-level moisture. Some risk for locally strong gusts in addition to hail will accompany this activity, should it cross the Rio Grande. As such, the Marginal risk has been expanded southward. ..Leitman.. 05/11/2024 $$