217
ACUS02 KWNS 101731
SWODY2
SPC AC 101730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across
portions of the Trans-Pecos and Far West Texas.

...Synopsis...
Mid-level troughing initially over the Upper Great Lakes region is
forecast to shift eastward across the northeastern U.S. Saturday.
Meanwhile, a low over the southwestern states is forecast to shift
eastward across the Four Corners region through the period.

At the surface, a front will continue progressing eastward across
the western Atlantic, while lingering westward across the Florida
Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, and then west-northwestward across far
West Texas and into New Mexico.  A second/weak front is forecast to
shift southward out of Canada into the northern Plains/Montana late.

...Southeastern New Mexico into western Texas...
Daytime heating of a modestly moist (upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints)
boundary layer across western Texas and into southeastern New
Mexico, in the vicinity of a stalled surface front, will result in
afternoon destabilization across this area.  By late afternoon peak
mixed-layer CAPE values should range from 500 to 1500 J/kg.  This --
combined with ascent provided by the frontal zone, and southeasterly
upslope near higher terrain -- should allow a few storms to develop.
With low-level southeasterlies beneath moderate mid-level
westerlies, shear sufficient for rotating updrafts suggests that a
couple of supercells will be possible, which may linger into the
evening while moving eastward toward the Concho Valley region of
Texas.  Large hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible
with the stronger storms, before diminishing by late evening.

..Goss.. 05/10/2024

$$